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Un aperçu de la littérature théorique sur la courbe de Phillips

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  • Duc Loï Phan

Abstract

[fre] Cet article analyse la littérature théorique récente sur la courbe de Phillips, et suggère une formulation de l'équation de salaire compatible avec l'hypothèse d'anticipation en présence d'une certaine illusion monétaire, et celle de l'instabilité de la courbe de Phillips au cours du temps. Avec la première hypothèse seule, la courbe de Phillips est en fait une boucle orientée dans le sens des aiguilles d'une montre, avec les deux ensemble elle devient une spirale. En présence d'une politique des revenus visant à maintenir le taux d'inflation des salaires à l'intérieur d'une plage jugée supportable pour l'économie, cette spirale peut se déplacer vers la droite. Dans cette éventualité, le risque d'hyper­inflation est conjuré, mais au prix d'un chômage croissant, à taux d'inflation donné. (C.E.P.R.E.M.A.P., C.N.R.S.) [eng] This is a survey article of the recent theoretical literature on the Phillips curve. The paper considers, by way of synthesis, a formulation of the wage equation compatible with the expectation hypothesis, in presence of monetary illusion, and with the instability over time of the Phillips curve. With only the first hypothesis, the Phillips curve is in fact a « clockwise » loop, and with both hypotheses, it becomes a spiral.. It is shown that an incomes policy which intends to maintain the rates of wage inflation within the limits considered tolerable for the economy may induce this spiral to move to the right. In such circumstances, the risk of hyper­inflation is exorcised, but at the price of an increasing unemployment level, given the rate of wage inflation (C.E.P.R.E.M.A.P., C.N.R.S.)

Suggested Citation

  • Duc Loï Phan, 1971. "Un aperçu de la littérature théorique sur la courbe de Phillips," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 22(5), pages 751-791.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1971_num_22_5_407987
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1971.407987
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1971.407987
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:bla:econom:v:37:y:1970:i:147:p:311-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. E. Kuh, 1967. "A Productivity Theory of Wage Levels—An Alternative to the Phillips Curve," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 34(4), pages 333-360.
    3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Rapping, Leonard A, 1969. "Price Expectations and the Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 342-350, June.
    4. Otto Eckstein, 1964. "A Theory of the Wage-Price Process in Modern Industry," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 31(4), pages 267-286.
    5. Bent Hansen, 1970. "Excess Demand, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Wages," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(1), pages 1-23.
    6. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(4), pages 678-678.
    7. repec:bla:econom:v:37:y:1970:i:147:p:227-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Archibald, G C, 1969. "The Phillips Curve and the Distribution of Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 124-134, May.
    9. Holt, Charles C, 1969. "Improving the Labor Market Trade-Off between Inflation and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 135-146, May.
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