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Essais de prévision à moyen terme de la population agricole belge

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  • J.-P. Champagne

Abstract

[fre] L'objectif de l'étude est d'estimer à moyen terme l'évolution de la population agricole belge. . La méthode des chaînes de Markov est utilisée afin de prévoir le nombre d'exploitations agricoles en 1977. Le potentiel de main-d'œuvre qui sera utilisé par les fermes, est obtenu en prolongeant les tendances linéaires et logarithmiques de la population agricole, observées au cours de la dernière décennie. . Selon ce procédé, on peut estimer qu'en 1977, environ 107.000 exploitations agricoles occuperont entre 1,23 et 1,75 personnes actives par ferme. [eng] The objective of the study is to determine the short term evolution of the Belgian agricultural population. - In order to forecast the number of farms for 1977, the Markov chains method is used. A forecast of the workers which will be utilize by farms is obtained through an extension of its linear and logarithm tendancies determined by the number of agricultural workers observed in the last decades. . According to the process one can estimate that, in 1977, 107.000 farms will employ between 1,23 and 1,75 workers per farm.

Suggested Citation

  • J.-P. Champagne, 1972. "Essais de prévision à moyen terme de la population agricole belge," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 91(1), pages 95-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:recoru:ecoru_0013-0559_1972_num_91_1_2173
    DOI: 10.3406/ecoru.1972.2173
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecoru.1972.2173
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    1. Ronald D. Krenz, 1965. "Projection du nombre d'exploitations à l'aide de chaînes de Markov," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 64(1), pages 99-106.
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