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À quoi ont servi les réserves de change très importantes ?

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  • Patrick Artus

Abstract

[fre] Les réserves de change très importantes des pays émergents peuvent être dues à deux types de comportements : un comportement mercantiliste (affaiblissement volontaire du taux de change pour soutenir la croissance par les exportations) et un comportement de précaution, les réserves de change très élevées décourageant les attaques spéculatives contre les devises des pays émergents. Mais on observe à nouveau dans cette crise de fortes dépréciations des taux de change de ces pays, sauf de la Chine (les pays choisissent de laisser se déprécier leur monnaie plutôt que de perdre leurs réserves - À quoi servent alors les réserves de précaution ? - ), de fortes sorties de capitaux, révélant que l’accumulation antérieure de réserves de change venait d’entrées de capitaux spéculatifs qui peuvent ressortir du pays ; le niveau de réserves élevé, dans cette configuration, ne protège pas contre les sorties violentes de capitaux. On peut donc légitimement se demander si le coût de détention de réserves de change élevées (une utilisation inefficace de l’épargne) a vraiment des contreparties favorables et s’il ne faudrait pas choisir une autre méthode (contrôle des capitaux spéculatifs ?) pour éviter les crises de change dans les pays émergents. . Classification JEL : O24, F3, F4. [eng] What has been the use of the very large official reserves ? . The very large official reserves of emerging countries can be due to two types of behaviour : a mercantilist behaviour (intentional weakening of the exchange rate to support growth through exports) and a precautionary behaviour, because very large official reserves discourage speculative attacks against emerging-country currencies. But once again in this crisis there are sharp currency devaluations by emerging countries (except China), which choose to allow their currency to depreciate rather than lose their reserves (so what is the use of precautionary reserves ?) and significant capital outflows, revealing that the prior accumulation of official reserves was due to speculative capital inflows which can leave the country again ; the high level of reserves, in this context, provides no protection against dramatic capital outflows. It can therefore legitimately be wondered whether the cost of holding large official reserves (inefficient use of savings) gives real benefits in return, or whether another method should not be chosen (control of speculative capital flows ?) to prevent currency crises in emerging countries. . Classification JEL : O24, F3, F4.

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  • Patrick Artus, 2009. "À quoi ont servi les réserves de change très importantes ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 95(2), pages 259-274.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2009_num_95_2_5357
    DOI: 10.3406/ecofi.2009.5357
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.2009.5357
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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