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La fin du cycle traditionnel en assurance et réassurance de dommages ?

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  • Denis Kessler

Abstract

[fre] Les récents bouleversements semblent mettre aujourd’hui à mal les constructions théoriques issues de la pratique de l’assurance et de la réassurance d’hier qui ont permis de documenter le cycle de l’activité. Le cycle régulier d’hier et d’avant-hier est peut-être périmé. Il se transforme en un cycle davantage fragmenté, dans lequel le prix des différents risques évoluera de manière décorrélée, zones par zones, type de risques par type de risques ; des prix qui s’ajusteront de manière beaucoup plus rapide que par le passé ; un cycle dont l’amplitude sera plus faible que par le passé. Au niveau agrégé, l’ensemble de ces évolutions transformerait la régularité du cycle d’hier en une superposition et une coexistence d’équilibres instantanés stimulés par des discontinuités fréquentes et propres à la nature du risque ou de l’environnement spécifique de chacun des marchés sur lesquels ces risques s’échangent. C’est cette évolution que tente d’expliquer cet article. . Classification JEL : G22 [eng] Today recent upheavals seem to damage theories stemmed from insurance and reinsurance practice which allow to document on the activity cycle. The regular past cycle may be outdated. It changes into a more divided cycle in which the price of each risk will evolve uncorrelated, area by area, risks by risks. Prices will adapt more quickly and the cycle’s amplitude will be lower than in the past. These aggregated changes would turn the past regular cycle into a superposing and a coexistence of equilibriums stemmed from frequent or risk linked discontinuities. This article explains this evolution. . JEL classification : G22 . .

Suggested Citation

  • Denis Kessler, 2005. "La fin du cycle traditionnel en assurance et réassurance de dommages ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 80(3), pages 159-170.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2005_num_80_3_4093
    DOI: 10.3406/ecofi.2005.4093
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.2005.4093
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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