IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/recofi/ecofi_0987-3368_2004_num_77_4_4189.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

La réforme des retraites en Chine : enjeux, options et conséquences

Author

Listed:
  • Yan Wang
  • Fan Zhai

Abstract

[eng] China’s pension reform : challenges, options and impacts . China’s population has been aging rapidly, and the burdens of supporting the elderly are distributed unevenly across regions and sectors. This study discusses the current reform efforts, compares various options for financing the implicit pension debt and estimates the effects of pension reform on the sustainability of the system. Simulation results show that the current pay-as-you-go system is not financially sustainable and the implicit pension debt is estimated at around 46 to 63 percent of GDP in 2000. The public pillar becomes financially sustainable if tax revenues will be injected to finance the transition cost. The paper proposes to use value-added tax revenue to finance the transition cost, which would make the new multipillar system financially sustainable without damping economic growth. . JEL classification : H55, D58, O53, P52 [fre] La population chinoise vieillit rapidement et la charge du soutien aux personnes âgées est répartie inégalement parmi les régions et les secteurs. La présente étude examine les initiatives de réformes actuelles, compare différentes options de financement du déficit implicite du système de retraite et évalue les effets de la réforme des retraites sur la viabilité du système. Les résultats de simulations indiquent que le système actuel par répartition n’est pas financièrement viable et que le déficit implicite du système de retraite est estimé à environ 46 à 63 % du PIB en 2000. Le pilier public deviendra financièrement viable si les recettes fiscales sont réinjectées pour financer les coûts de transition. Cet article propose d’utiliser les recettes de TVA pour financer les coûts de transition, ce qui permettrait au nouveau système à plusieurs piliers d’être financièrement viable, sans peser toutefois sur la croissance économique. . Classification JEL : H55, D58, O53, P52

Suggested Citation

  • Yan Wang & Fan Zhai, 2004. "La réforme des retraites en Chine : enjeux, options et conséquences," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 77(4), pages 309-328.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2004_num_77_4_4189
    DOI: 10.3406/ecofi.2004.4189
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.2004.4189
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/ecofi.2004.4189
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/ecofi_0987-3368_2004_num_77_4_4189
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3406/ecofi.2004.4189?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1998. "Simulating the Privatization of Social Security in General Equilibrium," NBER Chapters, in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 265-311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Estelle James, 2001. "How Can China Solve ist Old Age Security Problem? The Interaction Between Pension, SOE and Financial Market Reform," CeRP Working Papers 15, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    3. Henry J. Aaron, 1977. "Demographic Effects on the Equity of Social Security Benefits," International Economic Association Series, in: Martin S. Feldstein & Robert P. Inman (ed.), The Economics of Public Services, chapter 7, pages 151-173, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Kenneth A. Lewis & Laurence S. Seidman, 2002. "Funding Social Security: The Transition in a Life-Cycle Growth Model," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 159-180, Spring.
    5. Arrau, Patricio, 1990. "Social security reform : the capital accumulation and intergenerational distribution effect," Policy Research Working Paper Series 512, The World Bank.
    6. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-926, Sept./Oct.
    7. James, Estelle, 1992. "Income security for old age : conceptual background and major issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 977, The World Bank.
    8. Atkinson, A.B., 1987. "Income maintenance and social insurance," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 13, pages 779-908, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michel Aglietta & Vladimir Borgy & Jean Chateau & Michel Juillard & Jacques le Cacheux & Gilles le Garrec & Vincent Touze, 2006. "World Growth and International Capital Flows in the XXIth Century," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2006-07, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    2. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2283 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2283 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Yan & Xu, Dianqing & Wang, Zhi & Zhai, Fan, 2004. "Options and impact of China's pension reform: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 105-127, March.
    2. Yan Wang & Dianqing Xu & Zhi Wang & FanZhai, 2001. "Implicit pension debt, transition cost, options, and impact of China's pension reform : a computable general equilibrium analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2555, The World Bank.
    3. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324, Elsevier.
    4. Assar Lindbeck & Mats Persson, 2003. "The Gains from Pension Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 74-112, March.
    5. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1998. "Privatizing U.S. Social Security: some possible effects on intergenerational equity and the economy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 31-37.
    6. Serrano, Carlos, 1999. "Social security reform, income disribution, fiscal policy, and capital accumulation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2055, The World Bank.
    7. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2014. "Public debt and social security: Level of formality matters," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 490-507.
    8. Breyer, Friedrich & Straub, Martin, 1993. "Welfare effects of unfunded pension systems when labor supply is endogenous," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 77-91, January.
    9. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J Kotlikoff, 2006. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the US, EU, Japan and China," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.),Demography and Financial Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Brian S. Armour & M. Melinda Pitts, 2007. "Smoking: taxing health and Social Security," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 92(Q 3), pages 27-41.
    11. James Banks & Carl Emmerson, 2000. "Public and private pension spending: principles, practice and the need for reform," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 1-63, March.
    12. Walter Fisher & Christian Keuschnigg, 2010. "Pension reform and labor market incentives," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 769-803, March.
    13. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2007. "Investment and the Cost of Capital: New Evidence from the Corporate Bond Market," NBER Working Papers 13174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Kim, Jae Kyeong, 1997. "Social security trust fund (SSTF), the government fiscal use of the SSTF, and intergenerational equity," ISU General Staff Papers 1997010108000012996, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    15. Feldstein, Martin, 1996. "The Missing Piece in Policy Analysis: Social Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 1-14, May.
    16. Ferreira, Sergio Guimarães, 2006. "Pension Reform in Brazil: Transitional Issues in a Model with Endogenous Labor Supply," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 26(1), May.
    17. Levenson, Alec R., 1996. "Do consumers respond to future income shocks? Evidence from social security reform in Taiwan," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 275-295, November.
    18. Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Smetters, Kent & Walliser, Jan, 2007. "Mitigating America's demographic dilemma by pre-funding social security," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 247-266, March.
    19. Brian S. Armour & M. Melinda Pitts, 2004. "Incorporating Insurance Rate Estimates and Differential Mortality into the Net Marginal Social Security Tax Rate Calculation," Public Finance Review, , vol. 32(6), pages 588-609, November.
    20. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1998. "Simulating the Privatization of Social Security in General Equilibrium," NBER Chapters, in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 265-311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2004_num_77_4_4189. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Equipe PERSEE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/ecofi .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.