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Les modèles statiques de microsimulation en Europe dans les années 90

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  • Holly Sutherland

Abstract

[fre] Les modèles statiques de microsimulation en Europe dans les années 90 . Les modèles de microsimulation sont désormais couramment utilisés comme moyen d'analyse des politiques économiques et sociales. Ils ont de nombreux domaines d'application, depuis des modèles essentiellement expérimentaux, à caractère universitaire, jusqu'à des modèles polyvalents, conçus pour des utilisateurs multiples, destinés à durer, et répondant aux besoins de décideurs gouvernementaux. . S'attachant principalement aux modèles statiques de revenu individuel et de dépenses des ménages, et à leur utilisation pour simuler les transferts fiscaux et sociaux, cet article précise l'état de ce type de modélisation, vers le milieu des années 90, dans cinq pays de l'Union Européenne : Belgique, France, Irlande, Italie et Royaume-Uni. Les moyens que ces modèles mettent en œuvre ainsi que leur statut (au sein de l'administration ou dans le cadre de la recherche théorique) sont très variables. Une part de ces divergences peut trouver son explication dans une disponibilité des micro-données fortement contrastée d'un pays à l'autre. Ces différences posent la question de la cohérence de ces modèles, et de la possibilité de les utiliser simultanément afin d'analyser les effets, dans chaque pays, de politiques qui seraient mises en œuvre au niveau européen : de telles comparaisons se heurtent encore, en l'état actuel, à de nombreuses difficultés, qui ne pourront être résolues que de manière progressive. [eng] Static Microsimulation Models in Europe in the 1990s . Microsimulation models are now commonly used to analyse economic and social policies. They can be used in many areas from essentially experimental and academic models to multifunctional multi-user models designed for long-term use and satisfying the needs of government decision-makers. This paper describes the state of this type of modeling in the five European Union countries of Belgium, France, Ireland, Italy and the United Kingdom around the mid-1990s. It focuses mainly on static models of individual income and household spending and how they are used to simulate tax and social transfers. The resources used for these models and the standing of the models themselves (in the government or in theoretical research) vary enormously. Some of these differences can be explained by huge disparities in microdata availability from one country to the next. . These differences beg the question as to the consistency of these models and the possibility of using them simultaneously to analyse the effects of future European policies on each country. In view of the current state of affairs, such comparisons still come up against a number of problems, which can only be solved gradually. [ger] Die statischen Mikrosimulationsmodelle in n58gt1417sspbfale124 . Mikrosimulationsmodelle sind nunmehr gângige Instrumente zur Analyse der Wirtschafts- und Sozialpolitiken. Sie werden in zahlreichen Bereichen eingesetzt, angefangen von den im wesentlichen experimentellen Modellen von universitârer Ausprâgung bis hin zu polyvalenten Modellen, die fur vielfàltige Nutzer und einen làngeren Zeitraum entwickelt werden und den Bedùrfnissen der Entscheidungstràger in der Regierung entsprechen. . In diesem Artikel, der sich hauptsâchlich mit den statischen Modellen der individuellen Einkûnfte und der Ausgaben der Privathaushalte sowie mit deren Nutzung zur Simulation der Steuer- und Sozialtransfers beschàftigt, wird der Stand dieser Art von Modellrechnung Mitte der 90er Jahre in fûnf Lândern der Europâischen Union beschrieben: Belgien, . Europa in den 90er Jahren . Frankreich, Irland, Italien und im Vereinigten Kônigreich. Die Mittel, die bei diesen Modellen zum Einsatz kommen, sowie ihr Stellung (innerhalb der Verwaltung oder im Rahmen der theoretischen Forschung) weichen sehr voneinander ab. Ein Teil dieser Unterschiede lâBt sich dadurch erklâren, da8 die Mikrodaten in den einzelnen Lândern auf sehr unterschiedliche Weise verfùgbar sind. Aufgrund dieser Unterschiede stellt sich die Frage, inwiefern dièse Modelle kohârent sind und sie sich gleichzeitig verwenden lassen, um in den einzelnen Lândern die Effekte von Politiken zu analysieren, die auf europàischer Ebene umgesetzt wùrden. Derzeit treten bei solchen Vergleichen noch zahlreiche Schwierigkeiten auf, die nur schrittweise ùberwunden werden kônnen. [spa] Los modelos estâticos de microsimulaciôn en Europa en los 90 . Los modelos de microsimulaciôn se utilizan ahora con frecuencia como medio de anâlisis de las politicas econômicas y sociales. Tienen numerosas esferas de aplicaciôn, desde unos modelos esencialmente expérimentales, de carâcter universitario, hasta unos modelos polivalentes, hechos para usuarios multiples y para durar, y respondiendo a las necesidades de los responsables del gobierno. Dedicândose principalmente a los modelos estâticos de renta individual y de gastos de los hogares, y al uso de aquéllos para simular las transferencias fiscales y sociales, dicho arttculo especifica el estado de este tipo de modelizaciôn, hacia mediados de los 90, en cinco pafses de la Union europea : Bélgica, Francia, Irlanda y Reino Unido. Los medios de los que se valen estos modelos y su estatuto (en el seno de la administraciôn o en el marco de la investigaciôn teôrica) son muy variables. Parte de estas divergencias puede encontrar una explicaciôn en una disponibilidad de los microdatros muy contrastada de un pafs a otro. Estas diferencias plantean la cuestiôn de la coherencia de estos modelos y de la posibilidad de utilizarlos de manera simultânea para analizar los efectos, en cada pafs, de las polfticas que se establezcan a nivel europeo : taies comparaciones sufren todavfa en la actualidad numerosas dificultades que solo podrân solucionarse de manera paulatina.

Suggested Citation

  • Holly Sutherland, 1998. "Les modèles statiques de microsimulation en Europe dans les années 90," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 315(1), pages 35-50.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_1998_num_315_1_2640
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.1998.2640
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.1998.2640
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Merz, Joachim, 1991. "Microsimulation -- A survey of principles, developments and applications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 77-104, May.
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    1. Amedeo Spadaro & François Bourguignon, 2003. "Les modèles de microsimulation dans l’analyse des politiques de redistribution : une brève présentation," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 160(4), pages 231-238.
    2. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat214kj4 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat214kj4 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Sutherland, Holly & Immervoll, Herwig & de Vos, Klaas, 2000. "Child poverty and child benefits in the European Union," EUROMOD Working Papers EM1/00, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    5. François Legendre, 2004. "Micro-simulation et évaluation des politiques économiques et sociale : un panorama des développements récents en France," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 114(1), pages 17-53.
    6. Vincent Touzé & Cyrille Hagneré & Gaël Dupont, 2003. "Les modèles de microsimulation dynamique dans l’analyse des réformes des systèmes de retraites : une tentative de bilan," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 160(4), pages 167-191.
    7. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat214kj4 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat214kj4 is not listed on IDEAS

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