IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/ecoprv/ecop_0249-4744_2001_num_149_3_6291.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Évaluation de risques controversés par la théorie des options réelles

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Kast
  • André Lapied
  • Sophie Pardo
  • Camélia Protopopescu

Abstract

[eng] Assessing Controversial Risks Using Real Options Theory . by Robert Kast, André Lapied, Sophie Pardo and Camelia Protopopescu . Public decision-making and risk assessment in such fields as environmental risk, industrial risk, disaster insurance, and health and unemployment insurance require dynamics to be taken into account and generally give rise to controversy. In order to use real options theory for these fields, we propose methods for constructing a virtual underlying security on the basis of a portfolio of traded assets. Real options theory will take care of dynamic aspects of the decision-making process while construction of the virtual underlying security takes account of various levels of controversy. Key-words : Real options, risks, collective choice, functional correlation coefficient, Kendall’s tau coefficent. JEL Classification : C13, C14, D81, G12, L32. [fre] Les problèmes de décision publique et l'évaluation de risques pour l'environnement, les risques industriels, l'assurance des catastrophes, de la santé et du chômage, etc., nécessitent de prendre en compte les aspects dynamiques et suscitent généralement des controverses. Afin d'utiliser la théorie des options réelles dans ces situations, nous proposons des méthodes de construction d'un sous-jacent virtuel à partir d''un portefeuille d'actifs négociés. La théorie des options réelles permet de prendre en compte la dynamique du processus de décision tandis que la construction du sous-jacent intègre différents niveaux de controverses. Mots-clés : Options réelles, risques, choix collectifs, coefficient de corrélation fonctionnelle, coefficient de Kendall. Classification JEL : C13, C14, D81, G12, L32.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Kast & André Lapied & Sophie Pardo & Camélia Protopopescu, 2001. "Évaluation de risques controversés par la théorie des options réelles," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 149(3), pages 51-63.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2001_num_149_3_6291
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2001.6291
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2001.6291
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/ecop.2001.6291
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/ecop_0249-4744_2001_num_149_3_6291
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3406/ecop.2001.6291?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eubank, R. L. & Speckman, Paul, 1991. "Convergence rates for trigonometric and polynomial-trigonometric regression estimators," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 119-124, February.
    2. Gonzalo Cortazar & Eduardo S. Schwartz & Marcelo Salinas, 1998. "Evaluating Environmental Investments: A Real Options Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(8), pages 1059-1070, August.
    3. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Delecroix, Michel & Protopopescu, Camelia, 2000. "Consistency of a least squares orthonormal series estimator for a regression function," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,7, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    5. A. Chateauneuf & R. Kast & A. Lapied, 1996. "Choquet Pricing For Financial Markets With Frictions1," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 323-330, July.
    6. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    7. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
    8. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
    9. Shanken, Jay, 1982. "The Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Is It Testable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(5), pages 1129-1140, December.
    10. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    11. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert Kast, 2011. "Managing financial risks due to natural catastrophes," Working Papers hal-00610241, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, 2020. "OPCIONES REALES Una guía teórico-práctica para la valoración de inversiones bajo incertidumbre mediante modelos en tiempo discreto y simulación de Monte Carlo," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, number 138, April.
    2. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    3. Dimson, Elroy & Mussavian, Massoud, 1999. "Three centuries of asset pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1745-1769, December.
    4. Collan, Mikael, 2004. "Giga-Investments: Modelling the Valuation of Very Large Industrial Real Investments," MPRA Paper 4328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Mark Broadie & Jerome B. Detemple, 2004. "ANNIVERSARY ARTICLE: Option Pricing: Valuation Models and Applications," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1145-1177, September.
    6. Cheng, Cheng & Wang, Zhen & Liu, Mingming & Chen, Qiang & Gbatu, Abimelech Paye & Ren, Xiaohang, 2017. "Defer option valuation and optimal investment timing of solar photovoltaic projects under different electricity market systems and support schemes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 594-610.
    7. Madlener, Reinhard & Stoverink, Simon, 2012. "Power plant investments in the Turkish electricity sector: A real options approach taking into account market liberalization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 124-134.
    8. Marcel Philipp Müller & Sebastian Stöckl & Steffen Zimmermann & Bernd Heinrich, 2016. "Decision Support for IT Investment Projects," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 58(6), pages 381-396, December.
    9. Barbara Glensk & Reinhard Madlener, 2019. "Energiewende @ Risk: On the Continuation of Renewable Power Generation at the End of Public Policy Support," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-25, September.
    10. Miranda, Oscar & Brandão, Luiz E. & Lazo Lazo, Juan, 2017. "A dynamic model for valuing flexible mining exploration projects under uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 393-404.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1046 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. James E. Smith & Kevin F. McCardle, 1999. "Options in the Real World: Lessons Learned in Evaluating Oil and Gas Investments," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 47(1), pages 1-15, February.
    13. Dalbem, Marta Corrêa & Brandão, Luiz Eduardo Teixeira & Gomes, Leonardo Lima, 2014. "Can the regulated market help foster a free market for wind energy in Brazil?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 303-311.
    14. Amir Ahmad Dar & Mohammad Shahfaraz Khan & Imran Azad & Amit Kumar Pathak & Gopu Jayaraman, 2024. "Literature review: options and its applications," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(8), pages 1-26, August.
    15. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    16. Perrakis, Stylianos, 1989. "Les contributions de la théorie financière à la solution de problèmes en organisation industrielle et en microéconomie appliquée," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 65(4), pages 518-546, décembre.
    17. Jack Clark Francis & Arie Harel & Giora Harpaz, 2010. "Actuarially Fair Premia for Deductible Insurance Policies," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 55(2), pages 83-91, November.
    18. Michele Moretto & Chiara D’Alpaos, 2004. "The Value of Flexibility in the Italian Water Service Sector: A Real Option Analysis," Working Papers 2004.140, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    19. Rainer Niemann & Caren Sureth, 2002. "Taxation under Uncertainty – Problems of Dynamic Programming and Contingent Claims Analysis in Real Option Theory," CESifo Working Paper Series 709, CESifo.
    20. James E. Smith & Kevin F. McCardle, 1998. "Valuing Oil Properties: Integrating Option Pricing and Decision Analysis Approaches," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 46(2), pages 198-217, April.
    21. Fernandes, Bartolomeu & Cunha, Jorge & Ferreira, Paula, 2011. "The use of real options approach in energy sector investments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4491-4497.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • L32 - Industrial Organization - - Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise - - - Public Enterprises; Public-Private Enterprises
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2001_num_149_3_6291. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Equipe PERSEE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/ecop .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.