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Can the regulated market help foster a free market for wind energy in Brazil?

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  • Dalbem, Marta Corrêa
  • Brandão, Luiz Eduardo Teixeira
  • Gomes, Leonardo Lima

Abstract

Wind energy has been negotiated in Brazil's regulated market through auctions organized by the government. Bilateral negotiations in the free market have been scarce. In 2011 wind farms were allowed to bid in ‘A minus 5 (A−5)' auctions, for energy with first delivery date 5 years ahead. This new design was expected to stimulate negotiations in the free market, as the 20-year contract in the regulated market eases financing while the 5-year grace period grants wind farms the option to sell whatever energy is generated beforehand in the free market. We modeled bidders' price decision in A−5 auctions as Real Options and concluded that given the low prices averaging USD 50/MWh, winners are tempted to defer investment, expecting more favorable equipment and energy prices, or a better knowledge of the wind site. Construction is likely to begin in 2–3 years, with little time left for the free market. Bidders that consider the option of eventually abandoning the project are more price competitive, increasing chances that some wind farms will never materialize. Therefore, this attempt to foster the free market may not pay-off and, moreover, it may have the unfavorable effect of turning Brazil's energy expansion planning a more difficult task.

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  • Dalbem, Marta Corrêa & Brandão, Luiz Eduardo Teixeira & Gomes, Leonardo Lima, 2014. "Can the regulated market help foster a free market for wind energy in Brazil?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 303-311.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:66:y:2014:i:c:p:303-311
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.11.019
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    Cited by:

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    2. Aquila, Giancarlo & Rotela Junior, Paulo & de Oliveira Pamplona, Edson & de Queiroz, Anderson Rodrigo, 2017. "Wind power feasibility analysis under uncertainty in the Brazilian electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 127-136.
    3. Michel Becker & Marcus Vinicius Andrade de Lima & Juliana Baldessar Weber, 2023. "Real Options Analysis for Investment Decisions in Geothermal Energy," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(12), pages 160-160, December.
    4. Garcia, Marli da Silva & Vilpoux, Olivier François & Cereda, Marney Pascoli, 2021. "Institutional arrangements in the commercialization of electric energy from sugarcane biomass in the Brazilian midwest," Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural (RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 59(3), January.
    5. Diniz, Bruno Andrade & Szklo, Alexandre & Tolmasquim, Maurício T. & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2023. "Delays in the construction of power plants from electricity auctions in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    6. Bayer, Benjamin & Berthold, Lennart & Moreno Rodrigo de Freitas, Bruno, 2018. "The Brazilian experience with auctions for wind power: An assessment of project delays and potential mitigation measures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 97-117.
    7. Nunes, Luis Eduardo & Lima, Marcus Vinicius Andrade de & Davison, Matthew & Leite, André Luis da Silva, 2021. "Switch and defer option in renewable energy projects: Evidences from Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    8. Bastian-Pinto, Carlos L. & Araujo, Felipe V. de S. & Brandão, Luiz E. & Gomes, Leonardo L., 2021. "Hedging renewable energy investments with Bitcoin mining," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    9. Viana, Alexandre G. & Ramos, Dorel Soares, 2018. "Outcomes from the first large-scale solar PV auction in Brazil," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 219-228.
    10. Vanderson Aparecido Delapedra-Silva & Paula Ferreira & Jorge Cunha & Herbert Kimura, 2021. "Economic Evaluation of Wind Power Projects in a Mix of Free and Regulated Market Environments in Brazil," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-18, June.

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