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Agrégats et politique monétaires dans la zone euro

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  • Stéphane Guéné

Abstract

[eng] Monetary Policy and Aggregates in the Euro Area . by Stéphane Guéné . The first pillar of the European Central Bank''s monetary strategy consists of a reference value for the medium-term growth rate of the M3 monetary aggregate (set at 4.5%). This paper examines whether the special importance given to monetary variables in the conduct of European monetary policy is warranted. Twoapproaches are used. Onthe one hand, we ask whether a stableM3demand function has been observed in the past. On the other, we study what information this aggregate contains for calculating short-to medium-term inflation using a P-Star model. [fre] Le premier pilier de la stratégie monétaire de la Banque centrale européenne est constitué notamment d’une valeur de référence pour le rythme de croissance de moyen terme de l’agrégat monétaire M3 (fixée à 4,5%). Cet article examine si cette importance toute particulière accordée aux variables monétaires dans la conduite de la politique monétaire européenne est justifiée. Pour cela, deux thèmes sont abordés. D’une part, nous avons cherché à savoir si un comportement stable de demande de M3 a pu être observé sur le passé. D’autre part, nous avons étudié le contenu en information de cet agrégat pour la détermination de l’inflation à court-moyen terme à partir d’une modélisation P-étoile.

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  • Stéphane Guéné, 2001. "Agrégats et politique monétaires dans la zone euro," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 147(1), pages 187-201.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2001_num_147_1_6221
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2001.6221
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2001.6221
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