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Deux études macroéconomiques de l'investissement

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  • Jérôme Glachant
  • Jean-François Nivet

Abstract

[eng] Two Macroeconomic Studies on Investment. . Models based on Cœfficients Variable over Time and Co-Integration, . by Jérôme Glachant and Jean- François Mivet.. . Since 1979, the modelling of investment behaviour in France has encountered serious difficulties. This article aims to propose new approaches to the problem. First, models were tested based on coefficients variable over time, so as to better understand the instability of behaviour. Next, research was carried out on the order of integration of series likely to intervene in explaining investment behaviour; an error-correction model was estimated. The study confirms the difficulties of the problem. Accelerator-type variables are less pertinent. The assessment of a long-term relationship between production, capital and technical progress appears difficult indeed. [spa] Dos estudios macroeconómicos de la inversion. . Modelos con coeficientes variables en el tiempo y cointegración, . por Jérôme Glachant y Jean-François Nivet.. . Después de 1979, la modelización de la inversión se ha enf rentado, en Francia, con dificultades graves. El objeto de este artículo es el de renovar los enfoques del problema. Ante todo se ensayan modelos con coeficientes variables en el tiempo con el fin de dar cuenta mejor de la inestabilidad de los comportamientos. Luego se efectúa una investigación del orden de integración de las series capaces de intervenir dentro de la explicación de la inversión ; se estima un modelo de corrección de error. El estudio confirma las dificultades del problema. Las variables del tipo acelerador son menos pertinentes. No parece ser muy cómodo el dar cuenta de una relación a largo plazo entre producción, capital y progreso técnico. [ger] Zwei makroökonomische Studien über die Investitionstätigkeit. Modelle mit zeitvariablen Koeffizienten und Ko-Integration, . von Jérôme Glachant und Jean-François Nivet.. . Nach 1979 stieß die Modellierung der Investitionstätigkeit in Frankreich auf erhebliche Schwierigkeiten. Dieser Artikel zielt darauf ab, das Problem von neuen Ansätzen aus zu behandeln. Zuerst werden Modelle mit zeitvariablen Koeffizienten getestet, urn die Instabilität der Verhaltensweisen besser erfassen zu können. Dann wird eine Unter- suchung des Integrationsniveaus der Reihen durchgeführt, die für die Erklärung der Investitionstätigkeitvon Bedeutung sein können ; ein Modell miteinbezogener Fehlerkorrektur wird geschätzt. Die Studie bestätigt die Schwierigkeiten des Problems. Die Variablen des Akzeleratortyps sind weniger relevant. Es ist offensichtlich nicht einfach, über eine Langzeitrelation zwischen Produktion, Kapital und technischem Fortschritt Rechenschaft abzulegen. [fre] Deux études macroéconomiques de l'investissement : . modèles à cœfficients variant dans le temps et co-intégration, . par Jérôme Glachant et Jean-François Nivet.. . Après 1979, la modélisation de l'investissement s'est heurtée, en France, à de graves difficultés. Le but de cet article est de renouveler les approches du problème. Des modèles à coefficients variables dans le temps sont d'abord testés afin de mieux rendre compte de l'instabilité des comportements. Puis une recherche de l'ordre d'intégration des séries susceptibles d'intervenir dans l'explication de l'investissement est effectuée ; un modèle à correction d'erreur est estimé. L'étude confirme les difficultés du problème. Les variables du type accélérateur sont moins pertinentes. Il apparaît peu aisé de rendre compte d'une liaison à long terme entre production, capital et progrès technique.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Glachant & Jean-François Nivet, 1989. "Deux études macroéconomiques de l'investissement," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 88(2), pages 25-40.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1989_num_88_2_5115
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.1989.5115
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1989.5115
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    1. Patrick Artus & François Legendre & Pierre Morin, 1989. "Entreprise en essor ou en déclin : pourquoi ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 88(2), pages 41-55.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
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    1. François Legendre & Fabrice Paretti, 1997. "Investissement et profitabilité. Un modèle néo-classique et son estimation sur données de branches industrielles françaises," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(1), pages 107-122.

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