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Le modèle Copain : comportements patrimoniaux et intégration financière

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Dehove
  • Alain Fauqueur
  • Jean-Philippe Gaudemet
  • Michel Husson
  • Jean Mathis
  • Guy de Monchy
  • Dominique Vallet

Abstract

[fre] Le modèle Copain : comportements patrimoniaux et intégration financière, . par Mario Dehove, Alain Fauqueur, Jean-Philippe Gaudemet, Michel Husson, Jean Mathis, Guy de Monchy, Dominique Vallet. . Le modèle Copain (pour Comportements PAtrimomaux INtégrés) construit au Bureau de la Recherche Macroéconomique de la Direction de la Prévision, est utilisable depuis le printemps 1 981. Destiné aux études de politique économique à court-moyen terme, il fonctionne conjointement avec les modèles spécifiques de la Direction portant en particulier sur la fiscalité, les dépenses et le financement des administrations publiques centrales et locales, les organismes de Sécurité sociale. . Si pour de nombreuses relations, le modèle Copain reprend et actualise des formulations déjà utilisées antérieurement, il propose cependant une nouvelle lecture des enchaînements économiques, centrée en particulier sur la genèse et le rôle de l'inflation sur l'intégration des variables physiques, nominales et financières. . Le niveau des prix ne résulte plus d'une équation explicite assurant la répercussion des coûts; déterminé implicitement, il constitue la variable d'ajustement par laquelle les entreprises équilibrent leur compte tout en cherchant à atteindre une structure de bilan désirée (mécanisme de la norme d'endettement). L'inflation, dans cette approche n'est pas seulement l'expression de désajustements entre les coûts et les prix (la spirale prix-salaire) ; elle permet en outre de rendre compatibles les positions antagonistes des producteurs et des ménages par les transferts patrimoniaux qu'elle engendre en dévalorisant les créances et les dettes. . L'article commence par situer le modèle Copain par rapport aux débats et aux Travaux récents dans le domaine de l'analyse macroéconomique ; il propose ensuite une lecture des évolutions économiques essentielles observées sur la période d'estimation (1960-1978) ; il s'organise ensuite en trois parties : . la première présente «les caractéristiques essentielles de l'instrument», . la seconde («Comptes et comportements d'agents»), explicite les principales relations économétriques concernant le comportement des entreprises et des ménages, les relations extérieures et enfin le fonctionnement du système financier, . la troisième partie est consacrée au «fonctionnement du modèle» : après avoir montré comment le modèle reproduit (en simulation dynamique) les évolutions observées de 1970 à 1978, on propose un schéma.des mécanismes essentiels du modèle ; diverses variantes cherchent enfin à rendre compte'des propriétés du modèle Copain. [eng] The Copain model: patrimonial behaviours and financial integration, by Mario Dehove, Alain Fauqueur, Jean-Philippe Gaudemet, Michel Husson, Jean Mathis, Guy de Monchy, Dominique Vallet. . Copain, an econometric model of the french economy, built by the research Bureau of the forecasting department (Ministry of economic and finance) is used since spring 81 for short and medium term policy simulation, jointly with more specific models (concerning taxes, government spending, social security system... ). . While updating previous well known analyses for many relationships, the Copain model proposes a new interpretation of recent macroeconomic developments, with a special accent on the sources and the consequences of the.inflationary process, and with a codetermination of physical, nominal and financial variables. The price level is no longer explicitly derived from a cost-push mechanism ; implicitely calculated, it stands for the ad- jusment variable by wich enterprises balance their current accounts while aiming et a desired structure of assets and liabilities (ratio of total debt to equity). In this approach inflation is not only the result of wages prices adjustments ; it is mainly the way by which the compatibility between producers and consumers antagonistic positions is ensured through wealth transfers (and is particular the depreciation of enterprises debts genera- ted"by inflation). . The introduction of the paper places Copain among recent macroeconomic analyses and gives an overview of simulations periods (1960-1978). . The paper then presents: . the main characteristics of the model, . the behaviour of economic agents and the derivation of econometric relationships, . a first analysis of the model properties : performances over the estimation period, scheme of main interactions, analytic simulations and multipliers.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Dehove & Alain Fauqueur & Jean-Philippe Gaudemet & Michel Husson & Jean Mathis & Guy de Monchy & Dominique Vallet, 1981. "Le modèle Copain : comportements patrimoniaux et intégration financière," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(3), pages 3-69.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1981_num_48_3_3137
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.1981.3137
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1981.3137
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