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Analýza cen komerčních nemovitostí v zemích střední Evropy
[Analysis of the Commercial Property Prices in the Central European Countries]

Author

Listed:
  • Michal Hlaváček
  • Ondřej Novotný
  • Marek Rusnák

Abstract

Developments in the commercial property market are an important factor affecting financial stability, especially given their effect on the probability of default of non-financial corporations. This article analyses the development of the office property markets in five central European countries and compares their main indicators with those for Germany. It then formulates a simple error correction model of office property prices in relation to macroeconomic, demographic and structural determinants. The analysis reveals that both demand and supply factors (GDP, inflation and total office space), and partly also the maturity of the credit market, have an effect. Using this model, property prices are identified as having been overvalued in 2006-2008. However, in the CR office space currently appears to be slightly undervalued.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Hlaváček & Ondřej Novotný & Marek Rusnák, 2016. "Analýza cen komerčních nemovitostí v zemích střední Evropy [Analysis of the Commercial Property Prices in the Central European Countries]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(1), pages 3-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2016:y:2016:i:1:id:1051:p:3-18
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1051
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Davis, E. Philip & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "Commercial property prices and bank performance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 1341-1359, November.
    2. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    3. Michal Hlaváček & Luboš Komárek, 2010. "Rovnovážnost cen nemovitostí v České republice [Equilibrium Development of Housing Prices in the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2010(3), pages 326-342.
    4. Davis, E. Philip & Zhu, Haibin, 2011. "Bank lending and commercial property cycles: Some cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-21, February.
    5. Joseph Gyourko, 2009. "Understanding Commercial Real Estate: Just How Different from Housing Is It?," NBER Working Papers 14708, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    office prices; financial stability; Czech Republic; commercial property; Central Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets

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