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Srovnání konvergence ekonomik ČR a vybraných zemí eurozóny na základě analýzy funkcí odezvy a nabídkových či poptávkových šoků
[Comparing the Convergence of Czech Economy with Selected Euro Zone Members Using Impulse-Response Functions and Supply and Demand Shocks]

Author

Listed:
  • Roman Hušek
  • Tomáš Formánek

Abstract

Our paper focuses on the analysis of supply and demand shocks and on the estimation of expected costs of introducing Euro currency into Czech Republic (CR). The analysis is based on the theory of optimal currency areas by Mundell (1961, 1973) and uses a macroeconomic approach formalized by Bayoumi (1994). VAR models and the Blanchard-Quah decomposition (Blanchard and Quah, 1989) are used in order to simulate aggregated macroeconomic impulse response dynamics and to isolate supply and demand shocks for further inspection. Based on the analysis performed we conclude that given current circumstances and persistent differences in symmetry of economic shocks in CR and selected Euro zone countries, the costs from introducing the Euro to CR (as measured by fluctuations of real macroeconomic variables) would be nonzero, however presumably not significantly different from equivalent costs experienced in Austria or Slovakia (i.e. not prohibitive or signifi cantly damaging).

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Hušek & Tomáš Formánek, 2011. "Srovnání konvergence ekonomik ČR a vybraných zemí eurozóny na základě analýzy funkcí odezvy a nabídkových či poptávkových šoků [Comparing the Convergence of Czech Economy with Selected Euro Zone Me," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(3), pages 291-309.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2011:y:2011:i:3:id:792:p:291-309
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.792
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
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    4. Zsolt Darvas, 2013. "Monetary transmission in three central European economies: evidence from time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 363-390, May.
    5. Tamim Bayoumi, 1994. "A Formal Model of Optimum Currency Areas," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(4), pages 537-554, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    impulse-response analysis; optimum currency area; VAR model; macroeconomic convergence; supply and demand shocks; Blanchard-Quah decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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