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Úrokové diferenciály a zadlužení v eurozóně
[Interest rate differentials and the debt in the euro-zone]

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Kubíček

Abstract

The paper deals with unintended consequences of the monetary union for the level of debt in the member countries of the eurozone. First, it is shown that there exist systematic inflation and real interest rate differentials among the member countries. These differentials reach up to 3 percentage points per year between the high inflation countries (e.g. Ireland) and the low inflation ones (e.g. Germany). Different rates of growth of private or total domestic debt in individual countries were closely connected to inflation differentials. Thus the debt was rising very rapidly in high inflation countries. Surprisingly, national saving rates remained stable in most countries so they cannot explain the differences in growth rates of the debt. Instead we proposed a portfolio model of the debt according to which the change in the debt is due to a reshuffle of individual portfolios. The model also implies that asset prices should change in the same direction as does the debt. This seems to have been the case in the eurozone as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Kubíček, 2006. "Úrokové diferenciály a zadlužení v eurozóně [Interest rate differentials and the debt in the euro-zone]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(6), pages 816-833.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2006:y:2006:i:6:id:585:p:816-833
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.585
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    2. Alberola, Enrique & Tyrväinen, Timo, 1998. "Is there scope for inflation differentials in EMU? An empirical evaluation of the Balassa-Samuelson model in EMU countries," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/1998, Bank of Finland.
    3. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    4. Fabio Busetti & Lorenzo Forni & Andrew Harvey & Fabrizio Venditti, 2007. "Inflation Convergence and Divergence within the European Monetary Union," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 95-121, June.
    5. Angeloni Ignazio & Ehrmann Michael, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-36, August.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1998_015 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset prices; real interest rate; debt; inflation differentials; monetary union; portfolio model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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