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Global Risk Factors and Stock Returns during Bull and Bear Market Conditions: Evidence from Emerging Economies in Europe

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  • Sercan Demiralay

Abstract

This paper explores the dependence of emerging European stock markets (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine) on global risk factors (changes in gold prices, US implied volatility index and oil prices) based on daily data from 6 January 2004 to 31 December 2013. We employ a quantile regression model to analyse how the global factors affect stock returns under different market circumstances, such as bearish (lower quantiles), normal (intermediate quantile) and bullish (higher quantiles) times. Empirical results reveal that the response of stock markets is heterogeneous; larger equity markets, such as Poland, Russia and Turkey, are highly sensitive to the global factors while Bulgaria is the least sensitive. Overall, the dependence on gold and oil prices is positive while the dependence on US stock market uncertainty is negative. Additionally, in most of the cases, the dependence intensifies during bear market conditions, in which stock prices fall.

Suggested Citation

  • Sercan Demiralay, 2019. "Global Risk Factors and Stock Returns during Bull and Bear Market Conditions: Evidence from Emerging Economies in Europe," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(4), pages 402-415.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2019:y:2019:i:4:id:680:p:402-415
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.680
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Enamul Hoque & Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi & M. Kabir Hassan, 2021. "Geopolitical Uncertainties and Malaysian Stock Market Returns: Do Market Conditions Matter?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(19), pages 1-16, September.
    2. Mohammad Enamul Hoque & Soo-Wah Low, 2022. "Reactions of Bitcoin and Gold to Categorical Financial Stress: New Evidence from Quantile Estimation," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-10, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global risk factors; Emerging markets; Quantile regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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