IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prg/jnlpep/v2019y2019i3id711p257-275.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic Forecast Relevance in the Central Banks Decisions. The Case of European Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Magdalena Szyszko
  • Aleksandra Rutkowska

Abstract

We examine central banks' involvement in inflation forecast targeting by means of an index-based analysis and ordered logistic regression. The research encompasses the Bank of England, the Czech National Bank, the National Bank of Poland and the Sveriges Riksbank. They produce conditional or unconditional macroeconomic forecasts. Hence, two paths have been used to examine them. We examine whether the four central banks follow their forecasts to some extent. We have found that the CNB and SR are highly consistent in terms of compatibility of their decisions with the forecasts, timing of decisions, and communication by means of forecasts. The NBP follows its forecast much less consistently, while the BoE ignores it altogether. As some of the results for the BoE and NBP are unambiguous, we remain cautious while interpreting them. This paper contributes to the literature on the empirical evaluation of inflation forecast targeting.

Suggested Citation

  • Magdalena Szyszko & Aleksandra Rutkowska, 2019. "Macroeconomic Forecast Relevance in the Central Banks Decisions. The Case of European Economies," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(3), pages 257-275.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2019:y:2019:i:3:id:711:p:257-275
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.711
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pep.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.pep.711.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://pep.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.pep.711.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18267/j.pep.711?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mateusz Machaj, 2016. "Can the Taylor Rule be a Good Guidance for Policy? The Case of 2001-2008 Real Estate Bubble," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(4), pages 381-395.
    2. Nicoletta Batini & Edward Nelson, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400.
    3. Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 39-76, December.
    4. Josef Arlt & Martin Mandel, 2014. "The Reaction Function of Three Central Banks of Visegrad Group," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(3), pages 269-289.
    5. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski & Agata Miśkowiec, 2013. "How forward-looking are central banks? Some evidence from their forecasts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 142-146, February.
    6. Magdalena Szyszko, 2017. "How The Central Bank Makes Decision On Interest Rates? A Comparative Analysis Of Forecast Importance," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 281-294, June.
    7. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:711:p:1-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Aleksandra Halka, 2015. "Lessons from the crisis.Did central banks do their homework?," NBP Working Papers 224, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    3. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2016. "Money and Output: Friedman and Schwartz Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(6), pages 1223-1266, September.
    4. Aleksandra Halka, 2016. "How the central bank’s reaction function in small open economies evolved during the crisis," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(4), pages 301-318.
    5. Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The future of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1029-1059, July.
    6. Paolo Surico, 2005. "Monetary Policy Shifts, Indeterminacy and Inflation Dynamics," Macroeconomics 0504014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mackiewicz-Łyziak Joanna, 2017. "Monetary Policy in Poland – How the Financial Crisis Changed the Central Bank’s Preferences," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 13(1), pages 15-24, November.
    8. David Staines, 2023. "Stochastic Equilibrium the Lucas Critique and Keynesian Economics," Papers 2312.16214, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    9. Efstathios Polyzos & Costas Siriopoulos, 2024. "Autoregressive Random Forests: Machine Learning and Lag Selection for Financial Research," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(1), pages 225-262, July.
    10. Michael Woodford, 2008. "How Important Is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1598, December.
    11. Xinping Zhang & Yimeng Zhang & Yunchan Zhu, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic, Sustainability of Macroeconomy, and Choice of Monetary Policy Targets: A NK-DSGE Analysis Based on China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-20, March.
    12. Jakub Mateju, 2013. "Explaining the Strength and the Efficiency of Monetary Policy Transmission: A Panel of Impulse Responses from a Time-Varying Parameter Model," Working Papers IES 2013/18, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Nov 2013.
    13. Philipp Baumann & Enzo Rossi & Michael Schomaker, 2022. "Estimating the effect of central bank independence on inflation using longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimation," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Machine learning in central banking, volume 57, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Floro, Danvee & van Roye, Björn, 2017. "Threshold effects of financial stress on monetary policy rules: A panel data analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 599-620.
    15. Paolo Surico, 2007. "Monetary Policy Shifts and Inflation Dynamics," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: David Cobham (ed.), The Travails of the Eurozone, chapter 3, pages 42-66, Palgrave Macmillan.
    16. Michael Berlemann & Kai Hielscher, 2012. "Output sensitivity of monetary policy and macroeconomic performance," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(15), pages 1505-1509, October.
    17. Jakub Fischer & Hana Lipovská & Daniel Němec, 2016. "Implementační zpoždění diskreční fiskální politiky [Implementation Lag of Discretionary Fiscal Policy]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(3), pages 245-263.
    18. Yasin Kursat Onder & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2018. "The Effects of Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(1), pages 159-199, January.
    19. Jakub Matějů, 2019. "What Drives the Strength of Monetary Policy Transmission?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(3), pages 59-87, September.
    20. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 2010. "Money and Inflation: Some Critical Issues," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 97-153, Elsevier.
    21. Emmanuel Carré & Jézabel Couppey-Soubeyran & Salim Dehmej, 2015. "La coordination entre politique monétaire et politique macroprudentielle. Que disent les modèles dsge ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 66(3), pages 541-572.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation forecast targeting; macroeconomic forecasts; central bank decision rules;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2019:y:2019:i:3:id:711:p:257-275. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stanislav Vojir (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/uevsecz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.