IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prg/jnlpep/v2017y2017i3id613p269-285.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Comprehensive Method for House Price Sustainability Assessment in the Czech Republic

Author

Listed:
  • Hana Hejlová
  • Michal Hlaváček
  • Luboš Komárek

Abstract

The article describes approach proposed for the house price equilibrium assessment in the Czech Republic. It first explains why it is necessary to use multiple models simultaneously to correctly assess house price sustainability. It goes on to describe individual models proposed to estimate house price misalignment in the Czech Republic. Results given by these individual models are consonant in identifying periods of over- and undervaluation of house prices but slightly differ in the amplitude of the gaps. A method for aggregating the estimates produced by those approaches is then presented. It works on the premise that more correlated estimates may be evidence of a strong signal, while less correlated estimates may, on the other hand, bring additional information to the house price assessment. By using two sets of weights, it presents an interval of supposed under- or overvaluation of house prices. This method indicates that Czech house prices were roughly at their equilibrium level in mid-2014 following an extended period of slight undervaluation since the mid-2009. It also proves robust to the length of the sample used.

Suggested Citation

  • Hana Hejlová & Michal Hlaváček & Luboš Komárek, 2017. "A Comprehensive Method for House Price Sustainability Assessment in the Czech Republic," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(3), pages 269-285.
  • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2017:y:2017:i:3:id:613:p:269-285
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.613
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pep.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.pep.613.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge

    File URL: http://pep.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.pep.613.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18267/j.pep.613?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balázs Égert & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2007. "Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 49(3), pages 367-388, September.
    2. Kostas Tsatsaronis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "What drives housing price dynamics: cross-country evidence," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    3. Nobili, Andrea & Zollino, Francesco, 2017. "A structural model for the housing and credit market in Italy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 73-87.
    4. European Commission, 2015. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2015 edition," Taxation trends 2015, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    5. Michal Hlaváček & Luboš Komárek, 2010. "Rovnovážnost cen nemovitostí v České republice [Equilibrium Development of Housing Prices in the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2010(3), pages 326-342.
    6. Kajuth, Florian & Knetsch, Thomas A. & Pinkwart, Nicolas, 2013. "Assessing house prices in Germany: Evidence from an estimated stock-flow model using regional data," Discussion Papers 46/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House Prices and Business Cycles in Europe: a VAR Analysis," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 540, Boston College Department of Economics.
    8. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    9. Claudio Borio & Patrick McGuire, 2004. "Twin peaks in equity and housing prices?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    10. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    11. Kieran McQuinn & Nuala O’Donnell & Mary Ryan, 2005. "Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland's model," Chapters, in: Gabriel Fagan & Julian Morgan (ed.), Econometric Models of the Euro-area Central Banks, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Jan Frait & Zlatuse Komarkova, 2011. "Financial Stability, Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011, chapter 0, pages 96-111, Czech National Bank.
    13. Gimeno, Ricardo & Martí­nez-Carrascal, Carmen, 2010. "The relationship between house prices and house purchase loans: The Spanish case," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1849-1855, August.
    14. Martin Schneider, 2013. "Are Recent Increases of Residential Property Prices in Vienna and Austria Justified by Fundamentals?," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 29-46.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jaunius Karmelavičius & Ieva Mikaliūnaitė-Jouvanceau & Austėja Petrokaitė, 2022. "Housing and credit misalignments in a two-market disequilibrium framework," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 42, Bank of Lithuania.
    2. Martin Cesnak & Jan Klacso, 2021. "Assessing real estate prices in Slovakia - a structural approach," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2021, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    3. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb16/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Libor Votava & Lenka Komárková & Jiří Dvořák, 2021. "Determinanty poptávky a nabídky na trhu s byty a jejich význam pro vysvětlení regionálních rozdílů [Demand and Supply Determinants on the Property Market and Their Importance in Explaining Regional," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2021(1), pages 26-47.
    5. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb16/2 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hana Hejlová & Michal Hlaváček & Luboš Komárek, . "A Comprehensive Method for House Price Sustainability Assessment in the Czech Republic," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 0, pages 1-17.
    2. Alessio Ciarlone, 2015. "House price cycles in emerging economies," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 32(1), pages 17-52, March.
    3. Eloisa T Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Determinants of house prices in nine Asia-Pacific economies," BIS Working Papers 263, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Jonas Keil, 2018. "Fundamental Determinants of Real Estate Prices: A Panel Study of German Regions," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 24(1), pages 25-45, February.
    5. Lenarčič, Črt & Zorko, Robert & Herman, Uroš & Savšek, Simon, 2016. "A Primer on Slovene House Prices Forecast," MPRA Paper 103552, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Christophe Blot, 2006. "Peut-on parler de bulle sur le marché immobilier au Luxembourg ?," BCL working papers 20, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    7. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Rita Fradique Lourenço, 2015. "House prices: bubbles, exuberance or something else? Evidence from euro area countries," Working Papers w201517, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    8. Hertrich Markus, 2019. "A Novel Housing Price Misalignment Indicator for Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 759-794, December.
    9. Gabriele Galati & Federica Teppa & Rob Alessie, 2013. "Heterogeneity in house price dynamics," DNB Working Papers 371, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    10. Béchir Bouzid, 2010. "Titrisation des emprunts hypothécaires et bulle immobilière aux États-Unis : les origines d’une débâcle," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 97(2), pages 101-142.
    11. Oestmann Marco & Bennöhr Lars, 2015. "Determinants of house price dynamics. What can we learn from search engine data?," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 66(1), pages 99-127, April.
    12. Singh, Bhupal & Nadkarni, Avadhoot R., 2020. "Role of credit and monetary policy in determining asset prices: Evidence from emerging market economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    13. Damen, Sven & Vastmans, Frank & Buyst, Erik, 2016. "The effect of mortgage interest deduction and mortgage characteristics on house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-29.
    14. Fabian Lindner, 2014. "The Interaction of Mortgage Credit and Housing Prices in the US," IMK Working Paper 133-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    15. Dana Orfaig, 2017. "A Structural VAR Model for Estimating the Link between Monetary Policy and Home Prices in Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2017.09, Bank of Israel.
    16. Dimitris Anastasiou & Panayotis Kapopoulos & Kalliopi-Maria Zekente, 2023. "Sentimental Shocks and House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 627-655, November.
    17. Eloisa T Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Are Asia-Pacific Housing Prices Too High For Comfort?," Working Papers 2008-11, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    18. Le, Thai-Ha, 2015. "Do soaring global oil prices heat up the housing market? Evidence from Malaysia," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-8, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    19. Eloisa T. Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2011. "Determinants of House Prices in Nine Asia-Pacific Economies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 163-204, September.
    20. McCarthy, Yvonne & McQuinn, Kieran, 2017. "Credit conditions in a boom and bust property market: Insights for macro-prudential policy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 171-182.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    house price; multiple models; Czech Republic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2017:y:2017:i:3:id:613:p:269-285. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stanislav Vojir (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/uevsecz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.