IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prg/jnlpep/v2017y2017i2id600p142-154.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Government Size and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Threshold Regression Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Pelin Varol Iyidogan
  • Taner Turan

Abstract

We examine the relationship between the government size and economic growth by using threshold regression model and quarterly data over the period 1998:1-2015:1 for Turkey. Our results provide a strong evidence for the existence of a non-linear relationship. The estimated threshold levels, as a percentage of GDP, are 16.5 for the government total expenditures, 12.6 for consumption expenditures and 3.9 for investment expenditures. We find that an increase in the government size leads to a significant rise (decline) in economic growth rate when the government size is below (above) the threshold level, confirming the predictions of Armey curve. Our findings have a clear policy implication: since the realized government consumption and total expenditures are well above the estimated threshold levels, a reduction in the government size would boost the growth rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Pelin Varol Iyidogan & Taner Turan, 2017. "Government Size and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Threshold Regression Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(2), pages 142-154.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2017:y:2017:i:2:id:600:p:142-154
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.600
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pep.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.pep.600.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://pep.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.pep.600.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18267/j.pep.600?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taner Turan, 2014. "Optimal Size of Government in Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 286-294.
    2. Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 2001. "Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1501-1520, August.
    3. Mehdi Hajamini & Mohammad Ali Falahi, 2014. "The nonlinear impact of government consumption expenditure on economic growth: Evidence from low and low-middle income countries," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    5. Khalifa Ghali, 1999. "Government size and economic growth: evidence from a multivariate cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(8), pages 975-987.
    6. Shanaka Herath, 2012. "Size Of Government And Economic Growth: A Nonlinear Analysis," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 57(194), pages 7-30, July - Se.
    7. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    8. Alleyne, K.A. & Lewis-Bynoe, D. & Moore, W., 2004. "An Assessment of the Growth-Enhancing Size of Government in the Caribbean," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(3).
    9. Facchini, François & Melki, Mickaël, 2013. "Efficient government size: France in the 20th century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-14.
    10. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    11. Tamoya Christie, 2014. "The Effect Of Government Spending On Economic Growth: Testing The Non-Linear Hypothesis," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 183-204, April.
    12. Facchini, François & Melki, Mickaël, 2013. "Efficient government size: France in the 20th century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-14.
    13. Atrayee Ghosh Roy, 2009. "Evidence on economic growth and government size," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(5), pages 607-614.
    14. Ram, Rati, 1986. "Government Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidencefrom Cross-Section and Time-Series Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 191-203, March.
    15. King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio, 1990. "Public Policy and Economic Growth: Developing Neoclassical Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 126-150, October.
    16. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-I-Martin, 1992. "Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(4), pages 645-661.
    17. Karras, Georgios, 1996. "The Optimal Government Size: Further International Evidence on the Productivity of Government Services," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(2), pages 193-203, April.
    18. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    19. Magazzino, Cosimo & Forte, Francesco, 2010. "Optimal size of government and economic growth in EU-27," MPRA Paper 26669, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Helder Ferreira de Mendon �a & Thiago Cacicedo, 2015. "Size of government and economic growth in the largest Latin American country," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(11), pages 904-910, July.
    21. Chen, Sheng-Tung & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2005. "Government size and economic growth in Taiwan: A threshold regression approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1051-1066, December.
    22. Asimakopoulos, Stylianos & Karavias, Yiannis, 2016. "The impact of government size on economic growth: A threshold analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 65-68.
    23. Alimi, R. Santos, 2014. "Does Optimal Government Size Exist for Developing Economies? The Case of Nigeria," MPRA Paper 56073, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Andreas Bergh & Magnus Henrekson, 2011. "Government Size And Growth: A Survey And Interpretation Of The Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 872-897, December.
    25. Guseh, James S., 1997. "Government Size and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Political-Economy Framework," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 175-192, January.
    26. Karras, Georgios, 1997. "On the Optimal Government Size in Europe: Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(3), pages 280-294, June.
    27. Dar, Atul A. & AmirKhalkhali, Sal, 2002. "Government size, factor accumulation, and economic growth: evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(7-8), pages 679-692, November.
    28. Hassan Aly & Mark Strazicich, 2000. "Is Government Size Optimal in the Gulf Countries of the Middle East? An empirical investigation," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 475-483.
    29. Song-Zan Chiou-Wei & Zhen Zhu & Yung-Hsing Kuo, 2010. "Government size and economic growth: an application of the smooth transition regression model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(14), pages 1405-1415.
    30. Esmaiel ABOUNOORI & Younes NADEMI, 2010. "Government Size Threshold and Economic Growth in Iran," EcoMod2010 259600001, EcoMod.
    31. Romero-Ávila, Diego & Strauch, Rolf, 2008. "Public finances and long-term growth in Europe: Evidence from a panel data analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 172-191, March.
    32. Edmund J. Sheehey, 1993. "The Effect of Government Size on Economic Growth," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 321-328, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mroczek Teresa & Skica Tomasz & Rodzinka Jacek, 2019. "Optimal Size of the General Government Sector from the Point of View of its Impact on the EU Economies," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 14(2), pages 95-105, December.
    2. Suleyman Kasal, 2023. "Analysing The Armey Curve Based On The Fourier Cointegration Approach For Turkey," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 68(236), pages 139-158, January –.
    3. Megha Jain & Aishwarya Nagpal & Abhay Jain, 2021. "Government Size and Economic Growth: An Empirical Examination of Selected Emerging Economies," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 10(1), pages 7-39, June.
    4. Coayla, Edelina, 2021. "The Optimal Size of Government and the Armey Curve: A Review of Empirical Evidence," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 28(1).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya & Ayşegül Durucan, 2023. "New insights into the growth-maximizing size of government: evidence and implications for Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2243-2296, August.
    2. Megha Jain & Aishwarya Nagpal & Abhay Jain, 2021. "Government Size and Economic Growth: An Empirical Examination of Selected Emerging Economies," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 10(1), pages 7-39, June.
    3. Hajamini, Mehdi & Falahi, Mohammad Ali, 2018. "Economic growth and government size in developed European countries: A panel threshold approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-13.
    4. Facchini, François & Melki, Mickaël, 2013. "Efficient government size: France in the 20th century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-14.
    5. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "The optimum size of public education spending: panel data evidence," MPRA Paper 106847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Akram, Vaseem & Rath, Badri Narayan, 2020. "Optimum government size and economic growth in case of Indian states: Evidence from panel threshold model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 151-162.
    7. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Mehmet Ugur & Siew Ling Yew, 2017. "Does Government Size Affect Per-Capita Income Growth? A Hierarchical Meta-Regression Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 142-171, March.
    8. Taner Turan, 2014. "Optimal Size of Government in Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 286-294.
    9. Zareen, Shumaila & Qayyum, Abdul, 2014. "An Analysis of the Impact of Government Size on Economic Growth of Pakistan: An Endogenous Growth," MPRA Paper 56139, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ayşegül Durucan, 2022. "Testing The Validity Of The Bars Curve For Turkey," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 67(232), pages 153-192, January –.
    11. Suleyman Kasal, 2023. "Analysing The Armey Curve Based On The Fourier Cointegration Approach For Turkey," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 68(236), pages 139-158, January –.
    12. Andrew Phiri, 2017. "Nonlinearities in Wagner's law: further evidence from South Africa," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 231-249.
    13. Halkos, George & Paizanos, Epameinondas, 2015. "Fiscal policy and economic performance: A review of the theoretical and empirical literature," MPRA Paper 67737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Olaoye, Olumide O. & Eluwole, Oluwatosin O. & Ayesha, Aziz & Afolabi, Olugbenga O., 2020. "Government spending and economic growth in ECOWAS: An asymmetric analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    15. Alimi, R. Santos, 2014. "Does Optimal Government Size Exist for Developing Economies? The Case of Nigeria," MPRA Paper 56073, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Sabrina Auci & Laura Castellucci & Manuela Coromaldi, 2021. "How does public spending affect technical efficiency? Some evidence from 15 European countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 108-130, January.
    17. Pula Lekë & Elshani Alban, 2018. "Role of Public Expenditure in Economic Growth: Econometric Evidence from Kosovo 2002–2015," Baltic Journal of Real Estate Economics and Construction Management, Sciendo, vol. 6(1), pages 74-87, June.
    18. Tamoya Christie, 2014. "The Effect Of Government Spending On Economic Growth: Testing The Non-Linear Hypothesis," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 183-204, April.
    19. Mehdi Hajamini & Mohammad Ali Falahi, 2014. "The nonlinear impact of government consumption expenditure on economic growth: Evidence from low and low-middle income countries," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15, December.
    20. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "Health Care Spending and Economic Growth: Armey-Rahn Curve in a Panel of European Economies," MPRA Paper 106705, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; government size; non-linearity; threshold estimations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2017:y:2017:i:2:id:600:p:142-154. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stanislav Vojir (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/uevsecz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.