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Models of political cycles: the czech experience

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  • Radka Štiková

Abstract

This paper studies whether the dynamic behaviour of real GDP, unemployment and inflation is systematically affected by the timing of elections and by changes of government in the Czech Republic. Two basic models of political cycles are tested - political business cycle models and partisan theories. Political business cycle models emphasize the opportunistic behaviour of incumbents who strive to get re-elected regardless of party affiliation. On the other hand, partisan politicians are faithful to their ideological opinions and therefore attract a specific constituency. The tests partly support the opportunistic motives for the behaviour of Czech politicians. On the contrary, suppositions of partisan motives were not proved.

Suggested Citation

  • Radka Štiková, 2008. "Models of political cycles: the czech experience," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2008(3), pages 213-229.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2008:y:2008:i:3:id:330:p:213-229
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.330
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gartner, Manfred, 1994. "The quest for political cycles in OECD economies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 427-440, October.
    2. Marco Buti & Paul van den Noord, 2003. "Discretionary Fiscal Policy and Elections: The Experience of the Early Years of EMU," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 351, OECD Publishing.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; political cycle; models of political business cycle; partisan theories;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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