IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prg/jnlcfu/v2014y2014i4id421p31-42.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Systemic Risk Indicator
[Indikátor systémového rizika]

Author

Listed:
  • Milan Šimáček

Abstract

The paper analyses the relationship between excessive credit growth and the development of systemic risk, which subsequently materializes into losses of banking sector credit portfolios. The systemic risk indicator captures the time dimension of systemic risk, and hence represents the function of an indicator of the development of endogenous risk and imbalances in the system. The systemic risk indicator is thus a suitable leading indicator for the identification of the materialization of the risk of financial stress. In the paper, the credit to GDP gap for the domestic as well as the foreign component is chosen as the most suitable variable for the indicator. The results for each country confirm that the indicator is able to identify two to three years in advance the development of systemic risk and of systemic imbalances. Moreover, the results confirm the regional character of the systemic risk, when all of the countries realized an excessive growth mainly of the credit to households and mortgages, which moreover coincided in time.

Suggested Citation

  • Milan Šimáček, 2014. "Systemic Risk Indicator [Indikátor systémového rizika]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(4), pages 31-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlcfu:v:2014:y:2014:i:4:id:421:p:31-42
    DOI: 10.18267/j.cfuc.421
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cfuc.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.cfuc.421.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://cfuc.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.cfuc.421.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18267/j.cfuc.421?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    2. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Credit Growth and Capital Buffers: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Research and Policy Notes 2011/02, Czech National Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos Serrano-Cinca & Yolanda Fuertes-Call鮠 & Bego uti鲲ez-Nieto & Beatriz Cuellar-Fernᮤez, 2014. "Path modelling to bankruptcy: causes and symptoms of the banking crisis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(31), pages 3798-3811, November.
    2. Markus Behn & Carsten Detken & Tuomas Peltonen & Willem Schudel, 2017. "Predicting Vulnerabilities in the EU Banking Sector: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(4), pages 147-189, December.
    3. Detken, Carsten & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Schudel, Willem & Behn, Markus, 2013. "Setting countercyclical capital buffers based on early warning models: would it work?," Working Paper Series 1604, European Central Bank.
    4. Carsten Detken & Olaf Weeken & Lucia Alessi & Diana Bonfim & Miguel M. Boucinha & Christian Castro & Sebastian Frontczak & Gaston Giordana & Julia Giese & Nadya Jahn & Jan Kakes & Benjamin Klaus & Jan, 2014. "Operationalising the countercyclical capital buffer: indicator selection, threshold identification and calibration options," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 05, European Systemic Risk Board.
    5. Miroslav Plasil & Jakub Seidler & Petr Hlavac & Tomas Konecny, 2014. "An Indicator of the Financial Cycle in the Czech Economy," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2013/2014, chapter 0, pages 118-127, Czech National Bank.
    6. Alessandra Canepa & Fawaz Khaled, 2018. "Housing, Housing Finance and Credit Risk," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-23, May.
    7. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2011. "An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 86-95.
    8. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
    9. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Capital Flows and the Behavior of Emerging Market Equity Returns," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 159-194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ajit Singh, 2003. "Capital account liberalisation, free long-term capital flows, financial crises and economic development," Chapters, in: Philip Arestis & Michelle Baddeley & John S.L. McCombie (ed.), Globalisation, Regionalism and Economic Activity, chapter 1, pages 15-46, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
    12. Jerome L. Stein & Giovanna Paladino, 1999. "Exchange Rate Misalignments and Crises," CESifo Working Paper Series 205, CESifo.
    13. Heng, Dyna, 2011. "Capital flows and real exchange rate: does financial development matter?," MPRA Paper 48553, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2012.
    14. David Llewellyn, 2000. "Some Lessons for Regulation from Recent Bank Crises," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 69-109, August.
    15. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 2005. "Capital controls and exchange rate instability in developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 387-412, April.
    16. Dimelis, Sophia & Giotopoulos, Ioannis & Louri, Helen, 2015. "Can firms grow without credit?: evidence from the Euro Area, 2005-2011: a quantile panel analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 61157, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Michael Wosser, 2015. "The Determinants of Systemic Banking Crises A Regulatory Perspective," Economics Department Working Paper Series n265-15.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    18. Suarez, Javier & Sánchez Serrano, Antonio, 2018. "Approaching non-performing loans from a macroprudential angle," Report of the Advisory Scientific Committee 7, European Systemic Risk Board.
    19. Thanh C. Nguyen & Vítor Castro & Justine Wood, 2022. "Political environment and financial crises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 417-438, January.
    20. Natacha Postel‐Vinay & Stéphanie Collet, 2024. "Hot money inflows and bank risk‐taking: Germany from the 1920s to the Great Depression," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 77(2), pages 472-502, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic risk; Financial system; Financial crises; Credit expansion; Systémové riziko; Finanční systém; Finanční krize; Úvěrová expanze;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnlcfu:v:2014:y:2014:i:4:id:421:p:31-42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stanislav Vojir (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/uevsecz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.