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Systemic Risk Indicator
[Indikátor systémového rizika]

Author

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  • Milan Šimáček

Abstract

The paper analyses the relationship between excessive credit growth and the development of systemic risk, which subsequently materializes into losses of banking sector credit portfolios. The systemic risk indicator captures the time dimension of systemic risk, and hence represents the function of an indicator of the development of endogenous risk and imbalances in the system. The systemic risk indicator is thus a suitable leading indicator for the identification of the materialization of the risk of financial stress. In the paper, the credit to GDP gap for the domestic as well as the foreign component is chosen as the most suitable variable for the indicator. The results for each country confirm that the indicator is able to identify two to three years in advance the development of systemic risk and of systemic imbalances. Moreover, the results confirm the regional character of the systemic risk, when all of the countries realized an excessive growth mainly of the credit to households and mortgages, which moreover coincided in time.

Suggested Citation

  • Milan Šimáček, 2014. "Systemic Risk Indicator [Indikátor systémového rizika]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(4), pages 31-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlcfu:v:2014:y:2014:i:4:id:421:p:31-42
    DOI: 10.18267/j.cfuc.421
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    3. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Credit Growth and Capital Buffers: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Research and Policy Notes 2011/02, Czech National Bank.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic risk; Financial system; Financial crises; Credit expansion; Systémové riziko; Finanční systém; Finanční krize; Úvěrová expanze;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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