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Life expectancy drop in 2020. Estimates based on Human Mortality Database

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  • Stefano Mazzuco
  • Stefano Campostrini

Abstract

In many countries of the world, COVID–19 pandemic has led to exceptional changes in mortality trends. Some studies have tried to quantify the effects of Covid-19 in terms of a reduction in life expectancy at birth in 2020. However, these estimates might need to be updated now that, in most countries, the mortality data for the whole year are available. We used data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) Short-Term Mortality Fluctuations (STMF) data series to estimate life expectancy in 2020 for several countries. The changes estimated using these data and the appropriate methodology seem to be more pessimistic than those that have been proposed so far: life expectancy dropped in the Russia by 2.16 years, 1.85 in USA, and 1.27 in England and Wales. The differences among countries are substantial: many countries (e.g. Denmark, Island, Norway, New Zealand, South Korea) saw a rather limited drop in life expectancy or have even seen an increase in life expectancy.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Mazzuco & Stefano Campostrini, 2022. "Life expectancy drop in 2020. Estimates based on Human Mortality Database," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(1), pages 1-6, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0262846
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0262846
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    Cited by:

    1. Florian Bonnet & Pavel Grigoriev & Markus Sauerberg & Ina Alliger & Michael Mühlichen & Carlo-Giovanni Camarda, 2024. "Spatial disparities in the mortality burden of the covid-19 pandemic across 569 European regions (2020-2021)," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Sergio Pandolfi & Luigi Valdenassi & Geir Bjørklund & Salvatore Chirumbolo & Roman Lysiuk & Larysa Lenchyk & Monica Daniela Doşa & Serafino Fazio, 2022. "COVID-19 Medical and Pharmacological Management in the European Countries Compared to Italy: An Overview," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-22, April.
    3. Jonas Schöley & José Manuel Aburto & Ilya Kashnitsky & Maxi S. Kniffka & Luyin Zhang & Hannaliis Jaadla & Jennifer B. Dowd & Ridhi Kashyap, 2022. "Life expectancy changes since COVID-19," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(12), pages 1649-1659, December.

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