IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0261650.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A multi-source global-local model for epidemic management

Author

Listed:
  • José Ulises Márquez Urbina
  • Graciela González Farías
  • L Leticia Ramírez Ramírez
  • D Iván Rodríguez González

Abstract

The Effective Reproduction Number Rt provides essential information for the management of an epidemic/pandemic. Projecting Rt into the future could further assist in the management process. This article proposes a methodology based on exposure scenarios to perform such a procedure. The method utilizes a compartmental model and its adequate parametrization; a way to determine suitable parameters for this model in México’s case is detailed. In conjunction with the compartmental model, the projection of Rt permits estimating unobserved variables, such as the size of the asymptomatic population, and projecting into the future other relevant variables, like the active hospitalizations, using scenarios. The uses of the proposed methodologies are exemplified by analyzing the pandemic in a Mexican state; the main quantities derived from the compartmental model, such as the active and total cases, are included in the analysis. This article also presents a national summary based on the methodologies to illustrate how these procedures could be further exploited. The supporting information includes an application of the proposed methods to a metropolitan area to show that it also works well at other demographic disaggregation levels. The procedures developed in this article shed light on how to develop an effective surveillance system when information is incomplete and can be applied in cases other than México’s.

Suggested Citation

  • José Ulises Márquez Urbina & Graciela González Farías & L Leticia Ramírez Ramírez & D Iván Rodríguez González, 2022. "A multi-source global-local model for epidemic management," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(1), pages 1-26, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0261650
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0261650
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0261650
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0261650&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0261650?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mari Myllymäki & Tomáš Mrkvička & Pavel Grabarnik & Henri Seijo & Ute Hahn, 2017. "Global envelope tests for spatial processes," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 79(2), pages 381-404, March.
    2. Soetaert, Karline & Petzoldt, Thomas & Setzer, R. Woodrow, 2010. "Solving Differential Equations in R: Package deSolve," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i09).
    3. Luís M A Bettencourt & Ruy M Ribeiro, 2008. "Real Time Bayesian Estimation of the Epidemic Potential of Emerging Infectious Diseases," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(5), pages 1-9, May.
    4. Yin, Qian & Wang, Zhishuang & Xia, Chengyi & Dehmer, Matthias & Emmert-Streib, Frank & Jin, Zhen, 2020. "A novel epidemic model considering demographics and intercity commuting on complex dynamical networks," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 386(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christoph Zimmer & Reza Yaesoubi & Ted Cohen, 2017. "A Likelihood Approach for Real-Time Calibration of Stochastic Compartmental Epidemic Models," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(1), pages 1-21, January.
    2. Kateřina Koňasová & Jiří Dvořák, 2021. "Stochastic Reconstruction for Inhomogeneous Point Patterns," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 527-547, June.
    3. De Simone, Andrea & Piangerelli, Marco, 2020. "A Bayesian approach for monitoring epidemics in presence of undetected cases," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Johan Debayle & Vesna Gotovac Ðogaš & Kateřina Helisová & Jakub Staněk & Markéta Zikmundová, 2021. "Assessing Similarity of Random sets via Skeletons," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 471-490, June.
    5. Kris V. Parag & Robin N. Thompson & Christl A. Donnelly, 2022. "Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers?," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(S1), pages 5-15, November.
    6. Fajar, Muhammad, 2020. "Estimasi angka reproduksi Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), Kasus Indonesia (Estimation of COVID-19 reproductive number, case of Indonesia [Estimation Of Covid-19 Reproductive Number (Case Of Indonesia," MPRA Paper 105099, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Mar 2020.
    7. Fatima-Zahra Jaouimaa & Daniel Dempsey & Suzanne Van Osch & Stephen Kinsella & Kevin Burke & Jason Wyse & James Sweeney, 2021. "An age-structured SEIR model for COVID-19 incidence in Dublin, Ireland with framework for evaluating health intervention cost," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-25, December.
    8. Jiří Dvořák & Tomáš Mrkvička, 2022. "Graphical tests of independence for general distributions," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 671-699, April.
    9. Chad Cotti & Bryan Engelhardt & Joshua Foster & Erik Nesson & Paul Niekamp, 2021. "The relationship between in‐person voting and COVID‐19: Evidence from the Wisconsin primary," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 760-777, October.
    10. Belém Barbosa & José Ramón Saura & Dag Bennett, 2024. "How do entrepreneurs perform digital marketing across the customer journey? A review and discussion of the main uses," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 69-103, February.
    11. Imelda Trejo & Nicolas W Hengartner, 2022. "A modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for observed under-reported incidence data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-23, February.
    12. Victor W. Chu & Raymond K. Wong & Chi-Hung Chi & Wei Zhou & Ivan Ho, 2017. "The design of a cloud-based tracker platform based on system-of-systems service architecture," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 19(6), pages 1283-1299, December.
    13. Overstall, Antony M. & Woods, David C. & Martin, Kieran J., 2019. "Bayesian prediction for physical models with application to the optimization of the synthesis of pharmaceutical products using chemical kinetics," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 126-142.
    14. Serrouya, R. & Dickie, M. & DeMars, C. & Wittmann, M.J. & Boutin, S., 2020. "Predicting the effects of restoring linear features on woodland caribou populations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 416(C).
    15. Zadoki Tabo & Chester Kalinda & Lutz Breuer & Christian Albrecht, 2023. "Adapting Strategies for Effective Schistosomiasis Prevention: A Mathematical Modeling Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-18, June.
    16. Wang, Yuyao & Bu, Zhan & Yang, Huan & Li, Hui-Jia & Cao, Jie, 2021. "An effective and scalable overlapping community detection approach: Integrating social identity model and game theory," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 390(C).
    17. Kernel Prieto & M Victoria Chávez–Hernández & Jhoana P Romero–Leiton, 2022. "On mobility trends analysis of COVID–19 dissemination in Mexico City," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-25, February.
    18. Moore, Christopher M. & Catella, Samantha A. & Abbott, Karen C., 2018. "Population dynamics of mutualism and intraspecific density dependence: How θ-logistic density dependence affects mutualistic positive feedback," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 368(C), pages 191-197.
    19. Jakob G. Rasmussen & Heidi S. Christensen, 2021. "Point Processes on Directed Linear Networks," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 647-667, June.
    20. Myllymäki, Mari & Kuronen, Mikko & Bianchi, Simone & Pommerening, Arne & Mehtätalo, Lauri, 2024. "A Bayesian approach to projecting forest dynamics and related uncertainty: An application to continuous cover forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 491(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0261650. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.