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Evidence of air quality data misreporting in China: An impulse indicator saturation model comparison of local government-reported and U.S. embassy-reported PM2.5 concentrations (2015–2017)

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  • Jesse S Turiel
  • Robert K Kaufmann

Abstract

This paper analyzes hourly PM2.5 measurements from government-controlled and U.S. embassy-controlled monitoring stations in five Chinese cities between January 2015 and June 2017. We compare the two datasets with an impulse indicator saturation technique that identifies hours when the relation between Chinese and U.S. reported data diverges in a statistically significant fashion. These temporary divergences, or impulses, are 1) More frequent than expected by random chance; 2) More positive than expected by random chance; and 3) More likely to occur during hours when air pollution concentrations are high. In other words, relative to U.S.-controlled monitoring stations, government-controlled stations systematically under-report pollution levels when local air quality is poor. These results contrast with the findings of other recent studies, which argue that Chinese air quality data misreporting ended after a series of policy reforms beginning in 2012. Our findings provide evidence that local government misreporting did not end after 2012, but instead continued in a different manner. These results suggest that Chinese air quality data, while still useful, should not be taken entirely at face value.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesse S Turiel & Robert K Kaufmann, 2021. "Evidence of air quality data misreporting in China: An impulse indicator saturation model comparison of local government-reported and U.S. embassy-reported PM2.5 concentrations (2015–2017)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-18, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0249063
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0249063
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    1. Stephen A. Montzka & Geoff S. Dutton & Pengfei Yu & Eric Ray & Robert W. Portmann & John S. Daniel & Lambert Kuijpers & Brad D. Hall & Debra Mondeel & Carolina Siso & J. David Nance & Matt Rigby & Ali, 2018. "An unexpected and persistent increase in global emissions of ozone-depleting CFC-11," Nature, Nature, vol. 557(7705), pages 413-417, May.
    2. Wallace, Jeremy L., 2016. "Juking the Stats? Authoritarian Information Problems in China," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(1), pages 11-29, January.
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    1. Yulia I. Pyzheva & Evgeniya V. Zander & Anton I. Pyzhev, 2021. "Impacts of Energy Efficiency and Economic Growth on Air Pollutant Emissions: Evidence from Angara–Yenisey Siberia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-10, September.

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