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Forecasting hand-foot-and-mouth disease cases using wavelet-based SARIMA–NNAR hybrid model

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  • Gongchao Yu
  • Huifen Feng
  • Shuang Feng
  • Jing Zhao
  • Jing Xu

Abstract

Background: Hand-foot-and-mouth disease_(HFMD) is one of the most typical diseases in children that is associated with high morbidity. Reliable forecasting is crucial for prevention and control. Recently, hybrid models have become popular, and wavelet analysis has been widely performed. Better prediction accuracy may be achieved using wavelet-based hybrid models. Thus, our aim is to forecast number of HFMD cases with wavelet-based hybrid models. Materials and methods: We fitted a wavelet-based seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA)–neural network nonlinear autoregressive (NNAR) hybrid model with HFMD weekly cases from 2009 to 2016 in Zhengzhou, China. Additionally, a single SARIMA model, simplex NNAR model, and pure SARIMA–NNAR hybrid model were established for comparison and estimation. Results: The wavelet-based SARIMA–NNAR hybrid model demonstrates excellent performance whether in fitting or forecasting compared with other models. Its fitted and forecasting time series are similar to the actual observed time series. Conclusions: The wavelet-based SARIMA–NNAR hybrid model fitted in this study is suitable for forecasting the number of HFMD cases. Hence, it will facilitate the prevention and control of HFMD.

Suggested Citation

  • Gongchao Yu & Huifen Feng & Shuang Feng & Jing Zhao & Jing Xu, 2021. "Forecasting hand-foot-and-mouth disease cases using wavelet-based SARIMA–NNAR hybrid model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(2), pages 1-12, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0246673
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0246673
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lingling Zhou & Lijing Yu & Ying Wang & Zhouqin Lu & Lihong Tian & Li Tan & Yun Shi & Shaofa Nie & Li Liu, 2014. "A Hybrid Model for Predicting the Prevalence of Schistosomiasis in Humans of Qianjiang City, China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(8), pages 1-12, August.
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