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Potential impact of COVID-19 related unemployment on increased cardiovascular disease in a high-income country: Modeling health loss, cost and equity

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  • Nhung Nghiem
  • Nick Wilson

Abstract

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of health loss and health sector economic burdens in high-income countries. Unemployment is associated with increased risk of CVD, and so there is concern that the economic downturn associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will increase the CVD burden. Aims: This modeling study aimed to quantify potential health loss, health cost burden and health inequities among people with CVD due to additional unemployment caused by COVID-19 pandemic-related economic disruption in one high-income country: New Zealand (NZ). Methods: We adapted an established and validated multi-state life-table model for CVD in the national NZ population. We modeled indirect effects (ie, higher CVD incidence due to high unemployment rates) for various scenarios of pandemic-related unemployment projections from the NZ Treasury. Results: We estimated the potential CVD-related heath loss in NZ to range from 23,300 to 36,900 health-adjusted life years (HALYs) for the different unemployment scenarios. Health inequities would be increased with the per capita health loss for Māori (Indigenous population) estimated to be 3.7 times greater than for non-Māori (49.9 vs 13.5 HALYs lost per 1000 people). The estimated additional health system costs ranged between (NZ$303 million [m] to 503m in 2019 values; or US$209m to 346m). Conclusions and policy implications: Unemployment due to the COVID-19 pandemic could cause significant health loss, increase health inequities from CVD, and impose additional health system costs in this high-income country. Prevention measures should be considered by governments to reduce this risk, including additional job creation programs and measures directed towards the primary prevention of CVD.

Suggested Citation

  • Nhung Nghiem & Nick Wilson, 2021. "Potential impact of COVID-19 related unemployment on increased cardiovascular disease in a high-income country: Modeling health loss, cost and equity," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-14, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0246053
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0246053
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nhung Nghiem & Tony Blakely & Linda J Cobiac & Amber L Pearson & Nick Wilson, 2015. "Health and Economic Impacts of Eight Different Dietary Salt Reduction Interventions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(4), pages 1-18, April.
    2. Maliszewska,Maryla & Mattoo,Aaditya & Van Der Mensbrugghe,Dominique, 2020. "The Potential Impact of COVID-19 on GDP and Trade : A Preliminary Assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9211, The World Bank.
    3. Tony Blakely & Giorgi Kvizhinadze & June Atkinson & Joseph Dieleman & Philip Clarke, 2019. "Health system costs for individual and comorbid noncommunicable diseases: An analysis of publicly funded health events from New Zealand," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-21, January.
    4. Roelfs, David J. & Shor, Eran & Davidson, Karina W. & Schwartz, Joseph E., 2011. "Losing life and livelihood: A systematic review and meta-analysis of unemployment and all-cause mortality," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 72(6), pages 840-854, March.
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    1. Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu & Simona-Andreea Apostu & Aurel Marin, 2021. "Forecasting the Romanian Unemployment Rate in Time of Health Crisis—A Univariate vs. Multivariate Time Series Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-31, October.

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