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INFEKTA—An agent-based model for transmission of infectious diseases: The COVID-19 case in Bogotá, Colombia

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  • Jonatan Gomez
  • Jeisson Prieto
  • Elizabeth Leon
  • Arles Rodríguez

Abstract

The transmission dynamics of the coronavirus—COVID-19—have challenged humankind at almost every level. Currently, research groups around the globe are trying to figure out such transmission dynamics under special conditions such as separation policies enforced by governments. Mathematical and computational models, like the compartmental model or the agent-based model, are being used for this purpose. This paper proposes an agent-based model, called INFEKTA, for simulating the transmission of infectious diseases, not only the COVID-19, under social distancing policies. INFEKTA combines the transmission dynamic of a specific disease, (according to parameters found in the literature) with demographic information (population density, age, and genre of individuals) of geopolitical regions of the real town or city under study. Agents (virtual persons) can move, according to its mobility routines and the enforced social distancing policy, on a complex network of accessible places defined over an Euclidean space representing the town or city. The transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 under different social distancing policies in Bogotá city, the capital of Colombia, is simulated using INFEKTA with one million virtual persons. A sensitivity analysis of the impact of social distancing policies indicates that it is possible to establish a ‘medium’ (i.e., close 40% of the places) social distancing policy to achieve a significant reduction in the disease transmission.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonatan Gomez & Jeisson Prieto & Elizabeth Leon & Arles Rodríguez, 2021. "INFEKTA—An agent-based model for transmission of infectious diseases: The COVID-19 case in Bogotá, Colombia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(2), pages 1-16, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0245787
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0245787
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    Cited by:

    1. González-Parra, Gilberto & Villanueva-Oller, Javier & Navarro-González, F.J. & Ceberio, Josu & Luebben, Giulia, 2024. "A network-based model to assess vaccination strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic by using Bayesian optimization," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    2. Jeisson Prieto & Rafael Malagón & Jonatan Gomez & Elizabeth León, 2021. "Urban Vulnerability Assessment for Pandemic Surveillance—The COVID-19 Case in Bogotá, Colombia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-13, March.

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