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Effects of voluntary event cancellation and school closure as countermeasures against COVID-19 outbreak in Japan

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  • Yoshiyuki Sugishita
  • Junko Kurita
  • Tamie Sugawara
  • Yasushi Ohkusa

Abstract

Background: To control the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, sports and entertainment events were canceled and schools were closed throughout Japan from February 26 through March 19. That policy has been designated as voluntary event cancellation and school closure (VECSC). Object: This study assesses VECSC effectiveness based on predicted outcomes. Methods: A simple susceptible–infected–recovered model was applied to data of patients with symptoms in Japan during January 14 through March 26. The respective reproduction numbers for periods before VECSC (R0), during VECSC (Re), and after VECSC (Ra) were estimated. Results: Results suggest R0 before VECSC as 2.534 [2.449, 2.598], Re during VECSC as 1.077 [0.948, 1.228], and Ra after VECSC as 4.455 [3.615, 5.255]. Discussion and conclusion: Results demonstrated that VECSC can reduce COVID-19 infectiousness considerably, but after VECSC, the value of the reproduction number rose to exceed 4.0.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoshiyuki Sugishita & Junko Kurita & Tamie Sugawara & Yasushi Ohkusa, 2020. "Effects of voluntary event cancellation and school closure as countermeasures against COVID-19 outbreak in Japan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(12), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0239455
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0239455
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    1. Neil M. Ferguson & Derek A.T. Cummings & Simon Cauchemez & Christophe Fraser & Steven Riley & Aronrag Meeyai & Sopon Iamsirithaworn & Donald S. Burke, 2005. "Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia," Nature, Nature, vol. 437(7056), pages 209-214, September.
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    1. Moritz Kersting & Andreas Bossert & Leif Sörensen & Benjamin Wacker & Jan Chr. Schlüter, 2021. "Predicting effectiveness of countermeasures during the COVID-19 outbreak in South Africa using agent-based simulation," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Hajime Tomura, 2022. "Associations between components of household expenditures and the rate of change in the number of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Japan: Time-series analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(4), pages 1-33, April.
    3. Masoud Shahmanzari & Fehmi Tanrisever & Enes Eryarsoy & Ahmet Şensoy, 2023. "Managing disease containment measures during a pandemic," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(5), pages 1362-1379, May.

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