IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0237672.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Past world economic production constrains current energy demands: Persistent scaling with implications for economic growth and climate change mitigation

Author

Listed:
  • Timothy J Garrett
  • Matheus Grasselli
  • Stephen Keen

Abstract

Climate change has become intertwined with the global economy. Here, we describe the contribution of inertia to future trends. Drawing from thermodynamic principles, and using 38 years of available statistics between 1980 to 2017, we find a constant scaling between current rates of world primary energy consumption E ( t ) and the historical time integral W of past world inflation-adjusted economic production Y, or W ( t ) = ∫ 0 t Y ( t ′ ) d t ′. In each year, over a period during which both E and W more than doubled, the ratio of the two remained nearly unchanged, that is λ = E ( t ) ( t ) / W ( t ) = 5 . 9 ± 0 . 1 Gigawatts per trillion 2010 US dollars. What this near constant implies is that current growth trends in energy consumption, population, and standard of living, perhaps counterintuitively, are determined by past innovations that have improved the economic production efficiency, or enabled use of less energy to transform raw materials into the makeup of civilization. Current observed growth rates agree well with predictions derived from available historical data. Future efforts to stabilize carbon dioxide emissions are likely also to be constrained by the contributions of past innovation to growth. Assuming no further efficiency gains, options look limited to rapid decarbonization of energy consumption through sustained implementation of at least one Gigawatt of renewable or nuclear power capacity per day. Alternatively, with continued reliance on fossil fuels, civilization could shift to a steady-state economy, one that devotes economic production exclusively to maintining ongoing metabolic needs rather than to material expansion. Even if such actions could be achieved immediately, energy consumption would continue at its current level, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations would only begin to balance natural sinks at concentrations exceeding 500 ppmv.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy J Garrett & Matheus Grasselli & Stephen Keen, 2020. "Past world economic production constrains current energy demands: Persistent scaling with implications for economic growth and climate change mitigation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-19, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0237672
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0237672
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0237672
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0237672&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0237672?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Editorial, 2020. "Covid-19 and Climate Change," Journal, Review of Agrarian Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 5-6, January-J.
    2. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    3. Timothy Garrett, 2011. "Are there basic physical constraints on future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 437-455, February.
    4. Harcourt,G. C., 1972. "Some Cambridge Controversies in the Theory of Capital," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521096720, September.
    5. Steve Sorrell, 2014. "Energy Substitution, Technical Change and Rebound Effects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-24, April.
    6. Gowdy, John & Krall, Lisi, 2013. "The ultrasocial origin of the Anthropocene," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 137-147.
    7. Keen, Steve & Ayres, Robert U. & Standish, Russell, 2019. "A Note on the Role of Energy in Production," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 40-46.
    8. Jarvis, Andrew, 2018. "Energy Returns and The Long-run Growth of Global Industrial Society," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 722-729.
    9. Marta C. González & César A. Hidalgo & Albert-László Barabási, 2009. "Understanding individual human mobility patterns," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7235), pages 238-238, March.
    10. Michael Glotter & Raymond Pierrehumbert & Joshua Elliott & Nathan Matteson & Elisabeth Moyer, 2014. "A simple carbon cycle representation for economic and policy analyses," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(3), pages 319-335, October.
    11. Danny Cullenward & Lee Schipper & Anant Sudarshan & Richard Howarth, 2011. "Psychohistory revisited: fundamental issues in forecasting climate futures," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 457-472, February.
    12. Richard S. J. Tol, 2009. "The Economic Effects of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 29-51, Spring.
    13. Andreoni, Valeria & Galmarini, Stefano, 2016. "Drivers in CO2 emissions variation: A decomposition analysis for 33 world countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 27-37.
    14. Koomey, Jonathan G & Martin, Nathan C & Brown, Marilyn & Price, Lynn K & Levine, Mark D, 1998. "Costs of reducing carbon emissions: US building sector scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 433-440, April.
    15. Paul M. Romer, 1994. "The Origins of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 3-22, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Timothy J. Garrett & Matheus R. Grasselli & Stephen Keen, 2020. "Past production constrains current energy demands: persistent scaling in global energy consumption and implications for climate change mitigation," Papers 2006.03718, arXiv.org.
    2. Timothy J. Garrett, 2016. "Long-run evolution of the global economy - Part 2: Hindcasts of innovation and growth," Papers 1601.00233, arXiv.org.
    3. Manal Ayyad Dhif Alshammry & Saqib Muneer, 2023. "The influence of economic development, capital formation, and internet use on environmental degradation in Saudi Arabia," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Robert J. R. Elliott & Ingmar Schumacher & Cees Withagen, 2020. "Suggestions for a Covid-19 Post-Pandemic Research Agenda in Environmental Economics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 1187-1213, August.
    5. Jeon, Heesang, 2015. "Knowledge and Contemporary Capitalism in Light of Marx's Value Theory," Thesis Commons g5njk, Center for Open Science.
    6. Ben Fine, 1998. "Endogenous Growth Theory: A Critical Assessment," Working Papers 80, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    7. Herrmann-Pillath, Carsten, 2018. "The Case for a New Discipline: Technosphere Science," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 212-225.
    8. Jafino,Bramka Arga & Walsh,Brian James & Rozenberg,Julie & Hallegatte,Stephane, 2020. "Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9417, The World Bank.
    9. Timothy J. Garrett, 2013. "Thermodynamics of long-run economic innovation and growth," Papers 1306.3554, arXiv.org.
    10. repec:bap:eebook:02 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Flament, Guillaume, 2023. "Impact of the energy transition on long-term factor productivity," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 393-406.
    12. Jesus Felipe & John S.L. McCombie, 2013. "The Aggregate Production Function and the Measurement of Technical Change," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1975.
    13. Ayres, Robert U. & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M. & Lindenberger, Dietmar & Warr, Benjamin, 2013. "The underestimated contribution of energy to economic growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 79-88.
    14. C. A. K. Lovell, 2021. "The Pandemic, The Climate, and Productivity," CEPA Working Papers Series WP112021, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    15. Hideyuki Kamiryo, 2014. "Earth Endogenous System: To Answer the Current Unsolved Economic Problems (Second Edition)," Earth Endogenous System: To Answer the Current Unsolved Economic Problems (Second Edition), Better Advances Press, Canada, edition 2, volume 2, number 01 edited by Dr. Yisheng Huang, May.
    16. repec:bap:ees2th:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Smith, Matthew, 2018. "Demand-Led Growth Theory in a Classical Framework: Its Superiority, Its Limitations, and Its Explanatory Power," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP29, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    18. Stephen Keen & Timothy M. Lenton & Antoine Godin & Devrim Yilmaz & Matheus Grasselli & Timothy J. Garrett, 2021. "Economists' erroneous estimates of damages from climate change," Papers 2108.07847, arXiv.org.
    19. Hideyuki Kamiryo, 2014. "Earth Endogenous System: To Answer the Current Unsolved Economic Problems (Second Edition)," Earth Endogenous System: To Answer the Current Unsolved Economic Problems (Second Edition), Better Advances Press, Canada, edition 2, volume 2, number 02 edited by Yisheng Huang, May.
    20. Hagens, N.J., 2020. "Economics for the future – Beyond the superorganism," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    21. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.
    22. Abida Hafeez & Karim Bux Shah Syed & Fiza Qureshi, 2019. "Exploring the Relationship between Government R & D Expenditures and Economic Growth in a Global Perspective: A PMG Estimation Approach," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(4), pages 163-174, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0237672. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.