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Disentangling conditional effects of multiple regime shifts on Atlantic cod productivity

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  • Tommi Perälä
  • Esben M Olsen
  • Jeffrey A Hutchings

Abstract

Regime shifts are increasingly prevalent in the ecological literature. However, definitions vary and detection methods are still developing. Here, we employ a novel statistical algorithm based on the Bayesian online change-point detection framework to simultaneously identify shifts in the mean and (or) variance of time series data. We detected multiple regime shifts in long-term (59–154 years) patterns of coastal Norwegian Atlantic cod (>70% decline) and putative drivers of cod productivity: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); sea-surface temperature; zooplankton abundance; fishing mortality (F). The consequences of an environmental or climate-related regime shift on cod productivity are accentuated when regime shifts coincide, fishing mortality is high, and populations are small. The analyses suggest that increasing F increasingly sensitized cod in the mid 1970s and late 1990s to regime shifts in NAO, zooplankton abundance, and water temperature. Our work underscores the necessity of accounting for human-induced mortality in regime shift analyses of marine ecosystems.

Suggested Citation

  • Tommi Perälä & Esben M Olsen & Jeffrey A Hutchings, 2020. "Disentangling conditional effects of multiple regime shifts on Atlantic cod productivity," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-16, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0237414
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0237414
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    1. Nicholas A. J. Graham & Simon Jennings & M. Aaron MacNeil & David Mouillot & Shaun K. Wilson, 2015. "Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs," Nature, Nature, vol. 518(7537), pages 94-97, February.
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