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Convcast: An embedded convolutional LSTM based architecture for precipitation nowcasting using satellite data

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  • Ashutosh Kumar
  • Tanvir Islam
  • Yoshihide Sekimoto
  • Chris Mattmann
  • Brian Wilson

Abstract

Nowcasting of precipitation is a difficult spatiotemporal task because of the non-uniform characterization of meteorological structures over time. Recently, convolutional LSTM has been shown to be successful in solving various complex spatiotemporal based problems. In this research, we propose a novel precipitation nowcasting architecture ‘Convcast’ to predict various short-term precipitation events using satellite data. We train Convcast with ten consecutive NASA’s IMERG precipitation data sets each at intervals of 30 minutes. We use the trained neural network model to predict the eleventh precipitation data of the corresponding ten precipitation sequence. Subsequently, the predicted precipitation data are used iteratively for precipitation nowcasting of up to 150 minutes lead time. Convcast achieves an overall accuracy of 0.93 with an RMSE of 0.805 mm/h for 30 minutes lead time, and an overall accuracy of 0.87 with an RMSE of 1.389 mm/h for 150 minutes lead time. Experiments on the test dataset demonstrate that Convcast consistently outperforms other state-of-the-art optical flow based nowcasting algorithms. Results from this research can be used for nowcasting of weather events from satellite data as well as for future on-board processing of precipitation data.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashutosh Kumar & Tanvir Islam & Yoshihide Sekimoto & Chris Mattmann & Brian Wilson, 2020. "Convcast: An embedded convolutional LSTM based architecture for precipitation nowcasting using satellite data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-18, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0230114
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0230114
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    Cited by:

    1. Yan, Jie & Möhrlen, Corinna & Göçmen, Tuhfe & Kelly, Mark & Wessel, Arne & Giebel, Gregor, 2022. "Uncovering wind power forecasting uncertainty sources and their propagation through the whole modelling chain," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    2. Fatin Nadiah Yussof & Normah Maan & Mohd Nadzri Md Reba, 2021. "LSTM Networks to Improve the Prediction of Harmful Algal Blooms in the West Coast of Sabah," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-14, July.
    3. Davide Luciano Luca & Giovanna Capparelli, 2022. "Rainfall nowcasting model for early warning systems applied to a case over Central Italy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(1), pages 501-520, May.

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