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Choking under the pressure of competition: A complete statistical investigation of pressure kicks in the NFL, 2000–2017

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  • Nai-Wei Hsu
  • Kai-Shuo Liu
  • Shun-Chuan Chang

Abstract

In the NFL, kickers play a special role in determining the outcome of a match. There is a significant body of literature attributing the success of kicks to observed environmental and situational factors. However, the significance of these is not subject to agreement. In this study, we synthesize the deterministic and stochastic models based on data from the 2000–2017 NFL seasons to identify significant conditions associated with “choking.” This study’s empirical findings focus on integrating the statistical evidence on causality of skill and performance, and the interpretation of observed and unobserved heterogeneity of kicks, on the intervention effect of the new extra-point rule in the NFL since 2015, and on providing an in-depth evaluation of the impact of competition pressure.

Suggested Citation

  • Nai-Wei Hsu & Kai-Shuo Liu & Shun-Chuan Chang, 2019. "Choking under the pressure of competition: A complete statistical investigation of pressure kicks in the NFL, 2000–2017," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-18, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0214096
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0214096
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Edward P. Lazear, 2000. "The Power of Incentives," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 410-414, May.
    2. Dohmen, Thomas J., 2008. "Do professionals choke under pressure?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(3-4), pages 636-653, March.
    3. Ehrenberg, Ronald G & Bognanno, Michael L, 1990. "Do Tournaments Have Incentive Effects?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1307-1324, December.
    4. Dan Ariely & Uri Gneezy & George Loewenstein & Nina Mazar, 2009. "Large Stakes and Big Mistakes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(2), pages 451-469.
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    Cited by:

    1. Morgulev, Elia & Azar, Ofer H. & Galily, Yair & Bar-Eli, Michael, 2020. "The role of initial success in competition: An analysis of early lead effects in NBA overtimes," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

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