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Long-term serial position effects in cue-based inference

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  • Ashley Lawrence
  • Rick Thomas
  • Michael Dougherty

Abstract

An important theoretical question in decision making concerns the nature of cue-generation: What mechanism drives the generation of cues used to make inferences? Most models of decision making assume that the properties of cues, often cue validity, initiate a set of dynamic pre-decision processes. In two studies, we test how memory accessibility affects cue use by manipulating both ecological cue validity and cue accessibility in a stock-forecasting task. Cue accessibility was manipulated by the pattern of accurate cue discriminations within experiment blocks of the learning phase of the experiments. Specifically, we manipulated the serial positions in which the cues accurately discriminated while holding overall cue validity constant. At test, participants preferred cues that discriminated early in the learning phase—a kind of primacy effect. The findings suggest that cue use is influenced by memory retrieval mechanisms and that cue use is not solely determined by cue validity. The results have implications for the development of computational models of heuristic decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashley Lawrence & Rick Thomas & Michael Dougherty, 2018. "Long-term serial position effects in cue-based inference," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(7), pages 1-14, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0200821
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0200821
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andreas Glöckner & Tilmann Betsch, 2008. "Modeling Option and Strategy Choices with Connectionist Networks: Towards an Integrative Model of Automatic and Deliberate Decision Making," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2008_02, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    2. repec:cup:judgdm:v:3:y:2008:i::p:215-228 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Edgell, Stephen E. & Morrissey, John M., 1987. "Delayed exposure to additional relevant information in nonmetric multiple-cue probability learning," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 22-38, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arthi, Vellore & Parman, John, 2021. "Disease, downturns, and wellbeing: Economic history and the long-run impacts of COVID-19," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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