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Predicting local malaria exposure using a Lasso-based two-level cross validation algorithm

Author

Listed:
  • Bienvenue Kouwaye
  • Fabrice Rossi
  • Noël Fonton
  • André Garcia
  • Simplice Dossou-Gbété
  • Mahouton Norbert Hounkonnou
  • Gilles Cottrell

Abstract

Recent studies have highlighted the importance of local environmental factors to determine the fine-scale heterogeneity of malaria transmission and exposure to the vector. In this work, we compare a classical GLM model with backward selection with different versions of an automatic LASSO-based algorithm with 2-level cross-validation aiming to build a predictive model of the space and time dependent individual exposure to the malaria vector, using entomological and environmental data from a cohort study in Benin. Although the GLM can outperform the LASSO model with appropriate engineering, the best model in terms of predictive power was found to be the LASSO-based model. Our approach can be adapted to different topics and may therefore be helpful to address prediction issues in other health sciences domains.

Suggested Citation

  • Bienvenue Kouwaye & Fabrice Rossi & Noël Fonton & André Garcia & Simplice Dossou-Gbété & Mahouton Norbert Hounkonnou & Gilles Cottrell, 2017. "Predicting local malaria exposure using a Lasso-based two-level cross validation algorithm," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(10), pages 1-14, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0187234
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0187234
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fan J. & Li R., 2001. "Variable Selection via Nonconcave Penalized Likelihood and its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1348-1360, December.
    2. Friedman, Jerome H. & Hastie, Trevor & Tibshirani, Rob, 2010. "Regularization Paths for Generalized Linear Models via Coordinate Descent," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i01).
    3. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Addendum: Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(5), pages 768-768, November.
    4. Gilles Cottrell & Bienvenue Kouwaye & Charlotte Pierrat & Agnès le Port & Aziz Bouraïma & Noël Fonton & Mahouton Norbert Hounkonnou & Achille Massougbodji & Vincent Corbel & André Garcia, 2012. "Modeling the Influence of Local Environmental Factors on Malaria Transmission in Benin and Its Implications for Cohort Study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(1), pages 1-8, January.
    5. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(2), pages 301-320, April.
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