IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0178789.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A constrained multinomial Probit route choice model in the metro network: Formulation, estimation and application

Author

Listed:
  • Yongsheng Zhang
  • Enjian Yao
  • Heng Wei
  • Kangning Zheng

Abstract

Considering that metro network expansion brings us with more alternative routes, it is attractive to integrate the impacts of routes set and the interdependency among alternative routes on route choice probability into route choice modeling. Therefore, the formulation, estimation and application of a constrained multinomial probit (CMNP) route choice model in the metro network are carried out in this paper. The utility function is formulated as three components: the compensatory component is a function of influencing factors; the non-compensatory component measures the impacts of routes set on utility; following a multivariate normal distribution, the covariance of error component is structured into three parts, representing the correlation among routes, the transfer variance of route, and the unobserved variance respectively. Considering multidimensional integrals of the multivariate normal probability density function, the CMNP model is rewritten as Hierarchical Bayes formula and M-H sampling algorithm based Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach is constructed to estimate all parameters. Based on Guangzhou Metro data, reliable estimation results are gained. Furthermore, the proposed CMNP model also shows a good forecasting performance for the route choice probabilities calculation and a good application performance for transfer flow volume prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Yongsheng Zhang & Enjian Yao & Heng Wei & Kangning Zheng, 2017. "A constrained multinomial Probit route choice model in the metro network: Formulation, estimation and application," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(6), pages 1-19, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0178789
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0178789
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0178789
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0178789&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0178789?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlos F. Daganzo & Yosef Sheffi, 1977. "On Stochastic Models of Traffic Assignment," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 11(3), pages 253-274, August.
    2. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    3. Yai, Tetsuo & Iwakura, Seiji & Morichi, Shigeru, 1997. "Multinomial probit with structured covariance for route choice behavior," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 195-207, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Castillo, Enrique & Menéndez, José María & Sánchez-Cambronero, Santos, 2008. "Predicting traffic flow using Bayesian networks," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 482-509, June.
    2. Ji, Xiangfeng & Chu, Yanyu, 2020. "A target-oriented bi-attribute user equilibrium model with travelers’ perception errors on the tolled traffic network," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. Jiayang Li & Zhaoran Wang & Yu Marco Nie, 2023. "Wardrop Equilibrium Can Be Boundedly Rational: A New Behavioral Theory of Route Choice," Papers 2304.02500, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    4. Ding, Hongxing & Yang, Hai & Xu, Hongli & Li, Ting, 2023. "Status quo-dependent user equilibrium model with adaptive value of time," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 77-90.
    5. Castillo, Enrique & Menéndez, José María & Jiménez, Pilar & Rivas, Ana, 2008. "Closed form expressions for choice probabilities in the Weibull case," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 373-380, May.
    6. Tinessa, Fiore, 2021. "Closed-form random utility models with mixture distributions of random utilities: Exploring finite mixtures of qGEV models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 262-288.
    7. Moshe Ben-Akiva & Song Gao & Lu Lu & Yang Wen, 2015. "DTA2012 Symposium: Combining Disaggregate Route Choice Estimation with Aggregate Calibration of a Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 559-581, September.
    8. Clark, Stephen D. & Watling, David P., 2006. "Applications of sensitivity analysis for probit stochastic network equilibrium," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 894-911, December.
    9. Xie, Chi & Liu, Zugang, 2014. "On the stochastic network equilibrium with heterogeneous choice inertia," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 90-109.
    10. Oyama, Yuki & Hara, Yusuke & Akamatsu, Takashi, 2022. "Markovian traffic equilibrium assignment based on network generalized extreme value model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 135-159.
    11. Connors, Richard D. & Sumalee, Agachai & Watling, David P., 2007. "Sensitivity analysis of the variable demand probit stochastic user equilibrium with multiple user-classes," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 593-615, July.
    12. Habib, Khandker Nurul & Morency, Catherine & Trépanier, Martin & Salem, Sarah, 2013. "Application of an independent availability logit model (IAL) for route choice modelling: Considering bridge choice as a key determinant of selected routes for commuting in Montreal," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 14-26.
    13. Hironori Kato & Yuichiro Kaneko & Masashi Inoue, 2010. "Comparative analysis of transit assignment: evidence from urban railway system in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area," Transportation, Springer, vol. 37(5), pages 775-799, September.
    14. Jiayang Li & Qianni Wang & Liyang Feng & Jun Xie & Yu Marco Nie, 2024. "A Day-to-Day Dynamical Approach to the Most Likely User Equilibrium Problem," Papers 2401.08013, arXiv.org.
    15. Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich & Schaltegger, Christoph A., 2007. "With or Against the People? The Impact of a Bottom-Up Approach on Tax Morale and the Shadow Economy," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt6331x6vz, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
    16. Daniel Fonseca Costa & Francisval Carvalho & Bruno César Moreira & José Willer Prado, 2017. "Bibliometric analysis on the association between behavioral finance and decision making with cognitive biases such as overconfidence, anchoring effect and confirmation bias," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(3), pages 1775-1799, June.
    17. Christina Leuker & Thorsten Pachur & Ralph Hertwig & Timothy J. Pleskac, 2019. "Do people exploit risk–reward structures to simplify information processing in risky choice?," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 5(1), pages 76-94, August.
    18. Jae Wook Yoo & Richard Reed & Shung Jae Shin & David J. Lemak, 2009. "Strategic Choice and Performance in Late Movers: Influence of the Top Management Team's External Ties," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 308-335, March.
    19. Giovanni Calice & Levent Kutlu & Ming Zeng, 2021. "Understanding US firm efficiency and its asset pricing implications," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 803-827, February.
    20. Westerhoff, Frank H. & Dieci, Roberto, 2006. "The effectiveness of Keynes-Tobin transaction taxes when heterogeneous agents can trade in different markets: A behavioral finance approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 293-322, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0178789. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.