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A Comparison of a Machine Learning Model with EuroSCORE II in Predicting Mortality after Elective Cardiac Surgery: A Decision Curve Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Jérôme Allyn
  • Nicolas Allou
  • Pascal Augustin
  • Ivan Philip
  • Olivier Martinet
  • Myriem Belghiti
  • Sophie Provenchere
  • Philippe Montravers
  • Cyril Ferdynus

Abstract

Background: The benefits of cardiac surgery are sometimes difficult to predict and the decision to operate on a given individual is complex. Machine Learning and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) are recent methods developed to create and evaluate prediction models. Methods and finding: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a prospective collected database from December 2005 to December 2012, from a cardiac surgical center at University Hospital. The different models of prediction of mortality in-hospital after elective cardiac surgery, including EuroSCORE II, a logistic regression model and a machine learning model, were compared by ROC and DCA. Of the 6,520 patients having elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass, 6.3% died. Mean age was 63.4 years old (standard deviation 14.4), and mean EuroSCORE II was 3.7 (4.8) %. The area under ROC curve (IC95%) for the machine learning model (0.795 (0.755–0.834)) was significantly higher than EuroSCORE II or the logistic regression model (respectively, 0.737 (0.691–0.783) and 0.742 (0.698–0.785), p

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Allyn & Nicolas Allou & Pascal Augustin & Ivan Philip & Olivier Martinet & Myriem Belghiti & Sophie Provenchere & Philippe Montravers & Cyril Ferdynus, 2017. "A Comparison of a Machine Learning Model with EuroSCORE II in Predicting Mortality after Elective Cardiac Surgery: A Decision Curve Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0169772
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0169772
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    Cited by:

    1. Raydonal Ospina & Jaciele Oliveira & Cristiano Ferraz & André Leite & João Gondim, 2023. "Ensemble Algorithms to Improve COVID-19 Growth Curve Estimates," Stats, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-18, September.
    2. Jun Young Kim & Muhammad Sohail & Heung Soo Kim, 2023. "Rapid Estimation of Contact Stresses in Imageless Total Knee Arthroplasty," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-15, August.
    3. Varios Autores, 2020. "Víctimas del conflicto armado colombiano," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Derecho, number 1173.
    4. Mieke Deschepper & Willem Waegeman & Dirk Vogelaers & Kristof Eeckloo, 2020. "Using structured pathology data to predict hospital-wide mortality at admission," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(6), pages 1-11, June.

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