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Economic Evaluation of Individual School Closure Strategies: The Hong Kong 2009 H1N1 Pandemic

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  • Zoie Shui-Yee Wong
  • David Goldsman
  • Kwok-Leung Tsui

Abstract

Background: School closures as a means of containing the spread of disease have received considerable attention from the public health community. Although they have been implemented during previous pandemics, the epidemiological and economic effects of the closure of individual schools remain unclear. Methodology: This study used data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong to develop a simulation model of an influenza pandemic with a localised population structure to provide scientific justifications for and economic evaluations of individual-level school closure strategies. Findings: The estimated cost of the study’s baseline scenario was USD330 million. We found that the individual school closure strategies that involved all types of schools and those that used a lower threshold to trigger school closures had the best performance. The best scenario resulted in an 80% decrease in the number of cases (i.e., prevention of about 830,000 cases), and the cost per case prevented by this intervention was USD1,145; thus, the total cost was USD1.28 billion. Conclusion: This study predicts the effects of individual school closure strategies on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. Further research could determine optimal strategies that combine various system-wide and district-wide school closures with individual school triggers across types of schools. The effects of different closure triggers at different phases of a pandemic should also be examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Zoie Shui-Yee Wong & David Goldsman & Kwok-Leung Tsui, 2016. "Economic Evaluation of Individual School Closure Strategies: The Hong Kong 2009 H1N1 Pandemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0147052
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0147052
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Clarke, Lorcan, 2020. "An introduction to economic studies, health emergencies, and COVID-19," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 105051, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Klas Kellerborg & Werner Brouwer & Pieter Baal, 2020. "Costs and benefits of interventions aimed at major infectious disease threats: lessons from the literature," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(9), pages 1329-1350, December.

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