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Child Mortality Estimation 2013: An Overview of Updates in Estimation Methods by the United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Leontine Alkema
  • Jin Rou New
  • Jon Pedersen
  • Danzhen You
  • all members of the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation and its Technical Advisory Group

Abstract

Background: In September 2013, the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) published an update of the estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and under-five deaths for all countries. Compared to the UN IGME estimates published in 2012, updated data inputs and a new method for estimating the U5MR were used. Methods: We summarize the new U5MR estimation method, which is a Bayesian B-spline Bias-reduction model, and highlight differences with the previously used method. Differences in UN IGME U5MR estimates as published in 2012 and those published in 2013 are presented and decomposed into differences due to the updated database and differences due to the new estimation method to explain and motivate changes in estimates. Findings: Compared to the previously used method, the new UN IGME estimation method is based on a different trend fitting method that can track (recent) changes in U5MR more closely. The new method provides U5MR estimates that account for data quality issues. Resulting differences in U5MR point estimates between the UN IGME 2012 and 2013 publications are small for the majority of countries but greater than 10 deaths per 1,000 live births for 33 countries in 2011 and 19 countries in 1990. These differences can be explained by the updated database used, the curve fitting method as well as accounting for data quality issues. Changes in the number of deaths were less than 10% on the global level and for the majority of MDG regions. Conclusions: The 2013 UN IGME estimates provide the most recent assessment of levels and trends in U5MR based on all available data and an improved estimation method that allows for closer-to-real-time monitoring of changes in the U5MR and takes account of data quality issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Leontine Alkema & Jin Rou New & Jon Pedersen & Danzhen You & all members of the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation and its Technical Advisory Group, 2014. "Child Mortality Estimation 2013: An Overview of Updates in Estimation Methods by the United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(7), pages 1-13, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0101112
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0101112
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jon Pedersen & Jing Liu, 2012. "Child Mortality Estimation: Appropriate Time Periods for Child Mortality Estimates from Full Birth Histories," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(8), pages 1-13, August.
    2. Romesh Silva, 2012. "Child Mortality Estimation: Consistency of Under-Five Mortality Rate Estimates Using Full Birth Histories and Summary Birth Histories," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(8), pages 1-14, August.
    3. Arũnas P. Verbyla & Brian R. Cullis & Michael G. Kenward & Sue J. Welham, 1999. "The Analysis of Designed Experiments and Longitudinal Data by Using Smoothing Splines," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 48(3), pages 269-311.
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    2. Fatine Ezbakhe & Agustí Pérez Foguet, 2020. "Child mortality levels and trends: A new compositional approach," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(43), pages 1263-1296.
    3. Fatih Chellai, 2021. "Determinants of Under-Five Child Mortality in Arab Countries. Are the Effects Homogeneous Across Birth Order and Among Countries?," European Review of Applied Sociology, Sciendo, vol. 14(23), pages 34-49, December.
    4. Soumaïla Ouedraogo, 2020. "Estimation of older adult mortality from imperfect data: A comparative review of methods using Burkina Faso censuses," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(38), pages 1119-1154.
    5. Biruk Beletew Abate & Ayelign Mengesha Kasie & Melese Abate Reta & Mesfin Wudu Kassaw, 2020. "Neonatal sepsis and its associated factors in East Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 65(9), pages 1623-1633, December.

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