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Revisiting the Estimation of Dinosaur Growth Rates

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  • Nathan P Myhrvold

Abstract

Previous growth-rate studies covering 14 dinosaur taxa, as represented by 31 data sets, are critically examined and reanalyzed by using improved statistical techniques. The examination reveals that some previously reported results cannot be replicated by using the methods originally reported; results from new methods are in many cases different, in both the quantitative rates and the qualitative nature of the growth, from results in the prior literature. Asymptotic growth curves, which have been hypothesized to be ubiquitous, are shown to provide best fits for only four of the 14 taxa. Possible reasons for non-asymptotic growth patterns are discussed; they include systematic errors in the age-estimation process and, more likely, a bias toward younger ages among the specimens analyzed. Analysis of the data sets finds that only three taxa include specimens that could be considered skeletally mature (i.e., having attained 90% of maximum body size predicted by asymptotic curve fits), and eleven taxa are quite immature, with the largest specimen having attained less than 62% of predicted asymptotic size. The three taxa that include skeletally mature specimens are included in the four taxa that are best fit by asymptotic curves. The totality of results presented here suggests that previous estimates of both maximum dinosaur growth rates and maximum dinosaur sizes have little statistical support. Suggestions for future research are presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan P Myhrvold, 2013. "Revisiting the Estimation of Dinosaur Growth Rates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(12), pages 1-24, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0081917
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0081917
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gregory M. Erickson & Peter J. Makovicky & Philip J. Currie & Mark A. Norell & Scott A. Yerby & Christopher A. Brochu, 2004. "Gigantism and comparative life-history parameters of tyrannosaurid dinosaurs," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(7001), pages 772-775, August.
    2. Gregory M. Erickson & Kristina Curry Rogers & Scott A. Yerby, 2001. "Dinosaurian growth patterns and rapid avian growth rates," Nature, Nature, vol. 412(6845), pages 429-433, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nathan P Myhrvold, 2016. "Dinosaur Metabolism and the Allometry of Maximum Growth Rate," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-35, November.
    2. Eva Maria Griebeler & Jan Werner, 2018. "Formal comment on: Myhrvold (2016) Dinosaur metabolism and the allometry of maximum growth rate. PLoS ONE; 11(11): e0163205," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-18, February.

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