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Publication Bias in Recent Meta-Analyses

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  • Michal Kicinski

Abstract

Introduction: Positive results have a greater chance of being published and outcomes that are statistically significant have a greater chance of being fully reported. One consequence of research underreporting is that it may influence the sample of studies that is available for a meta-analysis. Smaller studies are often characterized by larger effects in published meta-analyses, which can be possibly explained by publication bias. We investigated the association between the statistical significance of the results and the probability of being included in recent meta-analyses. Methods: For meta-analyses of clinical trials, we defined the relative risk as the ratio of the probability of including statistically significant results favoring the treatment to the probability of including other results. For meta-analyses of other studies, we defined the relative risk as the ratio of the probability of including biologically plausible statistically significant results to the probability of including other results. We applied a Bayesian selection model for meta-analyses that included at least 30 studies and were published in four major general medical journals (BMJ, JAMA, Lancet, and PLOS Medicine) between 2008 and 2012. Results: We identified 49 meta-analyses. The estimate of the relative risk was greater than one in 42 meta-analyses, greater than two in 16 meta-analyses, greater than three in eight meta-analyses, and greater than five in four meta-analyses. In 10 out of 28 meta-analyses of clinical trials, there was strong evidence that statistically significant results favoring the treatment were more likely to be included. In 4 out of 19 meta-analyses of observational studies, there was strong evidence that plausible statistically significant outcomes had a higher probability of being included. Conclusions: Publication bias was present in a substantial proportion of large meta-analyses that were recently published in four major medical journals.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Kicinski, 2013. "Publication Bias in Recent Meta-Analyses," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(11), pages 1-1, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0081823
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0081823
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    1. Kerry Dwan & Douglas G Altman & Juan A Arnaiz & Jill Bloom & An-Wen Chan & Eugenia Cronin & Evelyne Decullier & Philippa J Easterbrook & Erik Von Elm & Carrol Gamble & Davina Ghersi & John P A Ioannid, 2008. "Systematic Review of the Empirical Evidence of Study Publication Bias and Outcome Reporting Bias," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(8), pages 1-31, August.
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    1. Sven Kepes & Michael A McDaniel, 2015. "The Validity of Conscientiousness Is Overestimated in the Prediction of Job Performance," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(10), pages 1-22, October.
    2. Christian Harlos & Tim C. Edgell & Johan Hollander, 2017. "No evidence of publication bias in climate change science," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 375-385, February.
    3. DeVito, Nicholas J. & Morley, Jessica & Goldacre, Ben, 2024. "Barriers and best practices to improving clinical trials transparency at UK public research institutions: A qualitative interview study," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    4. Augusteijn, Hilde & van Aert, Robbie Cornelis Maria & van Assen, Marcel A. L. M., 2017. "The Effect of Publication Bias on the Assessment of Heterogeneity," OSF Preprints gv25c, Center for Open Science.

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