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Large Daily Stock Variation Is Associated with Cardiovascular Mortality in Two Cities of Guangdong, China

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  • Hualiang Lin
  • Yonghui Zhang
  • Yanjun Xu
  • Tao Liu
  • Jianpeng Xiao
  • Yuan Luo
  • Xiaojun Xu
  • Yanhui He
  • Wenjun Ma

Abstract

Objective: The current study aimed to examine the effects of daily change of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index on cardiovascular mortality in Guangzhou and Taishan, China. Methods: Daily mortality and stock performance data during 2006–2010 were collected to construct the time series for the two cities. A distributed lag non-linear model was utilized to examine the effect of daily stock index changes on cardiovascular mortality after controlling for potential confounding factors. Results: We observed a delayed non-linear effect of the stock index change on cardiovascular mortality: both rising and declining of the stock index were associated with increased cardiovascular deaths. In Guangzhou, the 15–25 lag days cumulative relative risk of an 800 index drop was 2.08 (95% CI: 1.38–3.14), and 2.38 (95% CI: 1.31–4.31) for an 800 stock index increase on the cardiovascular mortality, respectively. In Taishan, the cumulative relative risk over 15–25 days lag was 1.65 (95% CI: 1.13–2.42) for an 800 index drop and 2.08 (95% CI: 1.26–3.42) for an 800 index rising, respectively. Conclusions: Large ups and downs in daily stock index might be important predictor of cardiovascular mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Hualiang Lin & Yonghui Zhang & Yanjun Xu & Tao Liu & Jianpeng Xiao & Yuan Luo & Xiaojun Xu & Yanhui He & Wenjun Ma, 2013. "Large Daily Stock Variation Is Associated with Cardiovascular Mortality in Two Cities of Guangdong, China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(7), pages 1-8, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0068417
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0068417
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Fudong & Zhong, Jieming & He, Fan & Wang, Hao & Lin, Junfen & Yu, Min, 2022. "Stock market fluctuation and stroke incidence: A time series study in Eastern China," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    2. Jane M Fry & Lisa Farrell, 2023. "Road accidents: unexpected costs of stock market movements," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(1), pages 233-255.
    3. Ningyu Tang & Jingqiu Chen & Kaili Zhang & Thomas Li-Ping Tang, 2018. "Monetary Wisdom: How Do Investors Use Love of Money to Frame Stock Volatility and Enhance Stock Happiness?," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 19(6), pages 1831-1862, August.
    4. Ichiro Kawachi & Ilias Kyriopoulos & Sotiris Vandoros, 2023. "Economic uncertainty and cardiovascular disease mortality," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(7), pages 1550-1560, July.

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