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Predictable or Not? Individuals’ Risk Decisions Do Not Necessarily Predict Their Next Ones

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  • Kin Fai Ellick Wong
  • Cecilia Cheng

Abstract

This research examines the extent to which people may be free to make choices by testing their consistency in choosing risk options. In two experiments, participants were instructed to make the “same” type of risk decisions repeatedly. Experiment 1 showed that when the information for decision is positively framed in terms of gain, the participant’s choice in a particular decision could not be predicted by his or her choice in another decision (R2s

Suggested Citation

  • Kin Fai Ellick Wong & Cecilia Cheng, 2013. "Predictable or Not? Individuals’ Risk Decisions Do Not Necessarily Predict Their Next Ones," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(2), pages 1-5, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0056811
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0056811
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Martin Heisenberg, 2009. "Is free will an illusion?," Nature, Nature, vol. 459(7244), pages 164-165, May.
    3. Alexander Maye & Chih-hao Hsieh & George Sugihara & Björn Brembs, 2007. "Order in Spontaneous Behavior," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(5), pages 1-14, May.
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