IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0040693.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evidence of Multifractality from Emerging European Stock Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Petre Caraiani

Abstract

We test for the presence of multifractality in the daily returns of the three most important stock market indices from Central and Eastern Europe, Czech PX, Hungarian BUX and Polish WIG using the Empirical Mode Decomposition based Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis. We found that the global Hurst coefficient varies with the q coefficient and that there is multifractality evidenced through the multifractal spectrum. The exercise is replicated for the sample around the high volatility period corresponding to the last global financial crisis. Although no direct link has been found between the crisis and the multifractal spectrum, the crisis was found to influence the overall shape as quantified through the norm of the multifractal spectrum.

Suggested Citation

  • Petre Caraiani, 2012. "Evidence of Multifractality from Emerging European Stock Markets," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(7), pages 1-9, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0040693
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0040693
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0040693
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0040693&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0040693?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William A. Barnett & A. Ronald Gallant & Melvin J. Hinich & Jochen A. Jungeilges & Daniel T. Kaplan, 2004. "Robustness of Nonlinearity and Chaos Tests to Measurement Error, Inference Method, and Sample Size," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Functional Structure and Approximation in Econometrics, pages 529-548, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    2. Benoit Mandelbrot & Howard M. Taylor, 1967. "On the Distribution of Stock Price Differences," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 15(6), pages 1057-1062, December.
    3. Qian, Xi-Yuan & Gu, Gao-Feng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2011. "Modified detrended fluctuation analysis based on empirical mode decomposition for the characterization of anti-persistent processes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(23), pages 4388-4395.
    4. Timotej Jagric & Boris Podobnik & Marko Kolanovic, 2005. "Does the Efficient Market Hypothesis Hold?: Evidence from Six Transition Economies," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 79-103, August.
    5. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    6. Kantelhardt, Jan W. & Zschiegner, Stephan A. & Koscielny-Bunde, Eva & Havlin, Shlomo & Bunde, Armin & Stanley, H.Eugene, 2002. "Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 87-114.
    7. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2000. "Martingales, nonlinearity, and chaos," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 703-724, June.
    8. Domino, Krzysztof, 2011. "The use of the Hurst exponent to predict changes in trends on the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(1), pages 98-109.
    9. Richard H. Day, 1994. "Complex Economic Dynamics - Vol. 1: An Introduction to Dynamical Systems and Market Mechanisms," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262041413, April.
    10. Benoit Mandelbrot & Adlai Fisher & Laurent Calvet, 1997. "A Multifractal Model of Asset Returns," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1164, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    11. Kumar, Sunil & Deo, Nivedita, 2009. "Multifractal properties of the Indian financial market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(8), pages 1593-1602.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Faheem Aslam & Wahbeeah Mohti & Paulo Ferreira, 2020. "Evidence of Intraday Multifractality in European Stock Markets during the Recent Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-13, May.
    2. Caraiani, Petre & Haven, Emmanuel, 2015. "Evidence of multifractality from CEE exchange rates against Euro," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 395-407.
    3. Aslam, Faheem & Aziz, Saqib & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Mughal, Khurrum S. & Khan, Maaz, 2020. "On the efficiency of foreign exchange markets in times of the COVID-19 pandemic," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    4. Laura Raisa Miloş & Cornel Haţiegan & Marius Cristian Miloş & Flavia Mirela Barna & Claudiu Boțoc, 2020. "Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) of Stock Market Indexes. Empirical Evidence from Seven Central and Eastern European Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, January.
    5. Suchetana Sadhukhan & Poulomi Sadhukhan, 2022. "Sector-wise analysis of Indian stock market: Long and short-term risk and stability analysis," Papers 2210.09619, arXiv.org.
    6. Caraiani, Petre, 2012. "Characterizing emerging European stock markets through complex networks: From local properties to self-similar characteristics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(13), pages 3629-3637.
    7. Li Wang & Xing-Lu Gao & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2023. "Testing For Intrinsic Multifractality In The Global Grain Spot Market Indices: A Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis," FRACTALS (fractals), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 31(07), pages 1-24.
    8. Marisa Faggini, 2011. "Chaotic Time Series Analysis in Economics: Balance and Perspectives," Working papers 25, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
    9. Oussama Tilfani & My Youssef El Boukfaoui, 2020. "Multifractal Analysis of African Stock Markets During the 2007–2008 US Crisis," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(04), pages 1-31, January.
    10. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2020. "Multifractal Analysis of Market Efficiency across Structural Breaks: Implications for the Adaptive Market Hypothesis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, October.
    11. He, Shanshan & Wang, Yudong, 2017. "Revisiting the multifractality in stock returns and its modeling implications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 467(C), pages 11-20.
    12. Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2012. "Finite-size effect and the components of multifractality in financial volatility," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 147-155.
    13. Schadner, Wolfgang, 2022. "U.S. Politics from a multifractal perspective," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    14. Ruan, Qingsong & Yang, Bingchan & Ma, Guofeng, 2017. "Detrended cross-correlation analysis on RMB exchange rate and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 468(C), pages 91-108.
    15. Onali, Enrico & Goddard, John, 2009. "Unifractality and multifractality in the Italian stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 154-163, September.
    16. Lee, Hojin & Chang, Woojin, 2015. "Multifractal regime detecting method for financial time series," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 117-129.
    17. Dong Liu & Mingjie Luo & Qiang Fu & Yongjia Zhang & Khan M. Imran & Dan Zhao & Tianxiao Li & Faiz M. Abrar, 2016. "Precipitation Complexity Measurement Using Multifractal Spectra Empirical Mode Decomposition Detrended Fluctuation Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 505-522, January.
    18. Li, Daye & Nishimura, Yusaku & Men, Ming, 2016. "Why the long-term auto-correlation has not been eliminated by arbitragers: Evidences from NYMEX," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 167-178.
    19. Yao, Can-Zhong & Mo, Yi-Na & Zhang, Ze-Kun, 2021. "A study of the efficiency of the Chinese clean energy stock market and its correlation with the crude oil market based on an asymmetric multifractal scaling behavior analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    20. Wang, Lei & Liu, Lutao, 2020. "Long-range correlation and predictability of Chinese stock prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0040693. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.