IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0025133.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Causes and Consequences of Past and Projected Scandinavian Summer Temperatures, 500–2100 AD

Author

Listed:
  • Ulf Büntgen
  • Christoph C Raible
  • David Frank
  • Samuli Helama
  • Laura Cunningham
  • Dominik Hofer
  • Daniel Nievergelt
  • Anne Verstege
  • Mauri Timonen
  • Nils Chr Stenseth
  • Jan Esper

Abstract

Tree rings dominate millennium-long temperature reconstructions and many records originate from Scandinavia, an area for which the relative roles of external forcing and internal variation on climatic changes are, however, not yet fully understood. Here we compile 1,179 series of maximum latewood density measurements from 25 conifer sites in northern Scandinavia, establish a suite of 36 subset chronologies, and analyse their climate signal. A new reconstruction for the 1483–2006 period correlates at 0.80 with June–August temperatures back to 1860. Summer cooling during the early 17th century and peak warming in the 1930s translate into a decadal amplitude of 2.9°C, which agrees with existing Scandinavian tree-ring proxies. Climate model simulations reveal similar amounts of mid to low frequency variability, suggesting that internal ocean-atmosphere feedbacks likely influenced Scandinavian temperatures more than external forcing. Projected 21st century warming under the SRES A2 scenario would, however, exceed the reconstructed temperature envelope of the past 1,500 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulf Büntgen & Christoph C Raible & David Frank & Samuli Helama & Laura Cunningham & Dominik Hofer & Daniel Nievergelt & Anne Verstege & Mauri Timonen & Nils Chr Stenseth & Jan Esper, 2011. "Causes and Consequences of Past and Projected Scandinavian Summer Temperatures, 500–2100 AD," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(9), pages 1-9, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0025133
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0025133
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0025133
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0025133&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0025133?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0025133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.