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Bayesian Inference Underlies the Contraction Bias in Delayed Comparison Tasks

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  • Paymon Ashourian
  • Yonatan Loewenstein

Abstract

Delayed comparison tasks are widely used in the study of working memory and perception in psychology and neuroscience. It has long been known, however, that decisions in these tasks are biased. When the two stimuli in a delayed comparison trial are small in magnitude, subjects tend to report that the first stimulus is larger than the second stimulus. In contrast, subjects tend to report that the second stimulus is larger than the first when the stimuli are relatively large. Here we study the computational principles underlying this bias, also known as the contraction bias. We propose that the contraction bias results from a Bayesian computation in which a noisy representation of a magnitude is combined with a-priori information about the distribution of magnitudes to optimize performance. We test our hypothesis on choice behavior in a visual delayed comparison experiment by studying the effect of (i) changing the prior distribution and (ii) changing the uncertainty in the memorized stimulus. We show that choice behavior in both manipulations is consistent with the performance of an observer who uses a Bayesian inference in order to improve performance. Moreover, our results suggest that the contraction bias arises during memory retrieval/decision making and not during memory encoding. These results support the notion that the contraction bias illusion can be understood as resulting from optimality considerations.

Suggested Citation

  • Paymon Ashourian & Yonatan Loewenstein, 2011. "Bayesian Inference Underlies the Contraction Bias in Delayed Comparison Tasks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(5), pages 1-8, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0019551
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0019551
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    Cited by:

    1. Ofri Raviv & Itay Lieder & Yonatan Loewenstein & Merav Ahissar, 2014. "Contradictory Behavioral Biases Result from the Influence of Past Stimuli on Perception," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Sean Duffy & John Smith, 2020. "On the category adjustment model: another look at Huttenlocher, Hedges, and Vevea (2000)," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 19(1), pages 163-193, June.
    3. Sagi Jaffe-Dax & Ofri Raviv & Nori Jacoby & Yonatan Loewenstein & Merav Ahissar, 2015. "A computational model of implicit memory captures dyslexics’ perceptual deficits," Discussion Paper Series dp690, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
    4. I. Hachen & S. Reinartz & R. Brasselet & A. Stroligo & M. E. Diamond, 2021. "Dynamics of history-dependent perceptual judgment," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Adrien Wohrer & Christian K Machens, 2015. "On the Number of Neurons and Time Scale of Integration Underlying the Formation of Percepts in the Brain," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-38, March.
    6. Duffy, Sean & Smith, John, 2020. "Omitted-variable bias and other matters in the defense of the category adjustment model: A comment on Crawford (2019)," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    7. Ofri Raviv & Merav Ahissar & Yonatan Loewenstein, 2012. "How Recent History Affects Perception: The Normative Approach and Its Heuristic Approximation," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-10, October.
    8. Sarah R., Allred & L. Elizabeth, Crawford & Sean, Duffy & John, Smith, 2015. "Working memory and spatial judgments: Cognitive load increases the central tendency bias," MPRA Paper 63520, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ofri Raviv & Merav Ahissar & Yonatan Loewenstein, 2012. "How recent history affects perception: the normative approach and its heuristic approximation," Discussion Paper Series dp628, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
    10. Allred, Sarah & Crawford, L. Elizabeth & Duffy, Sean & Smith, John, 2014. "Cognitive constraints increase estimation biases: Cognitive load and delay in judgments," MPRA Paper 58314, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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