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Common ecology quantifies human insurgency

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Camilo Bohorquez

    (Universidad de Los Andes)

  • Sean Gourley

    (Complex Systems Group, University of Miami)

  • Alexander R. Dixon

    (Cavendish Laboratory, Cambridge University)

  • Michael Spagat

    (Royal Holloway College, University of London, Egham, Surrey TW20 0EX, UK)

  • Neil F. Johnson

    (Complex Systems Group, University of Miami)

Abstract

Ecology of war: statistical patterns of insurgency Many seemingly random or chaotic human activities have been found to exhibit universal statistical patterns. Among these is human conflict: the size distribution of casualties aggregated over entire wars follows an approximate power-law distribution. But do the events within individual wars share any common patterns? Neil Johnson and colleagues show that they do. Using detailed data sets from a wide range of conflicts, including Afghanistan, Iraq and Colombia, they show that insurgent wars share common patterns with each other, and also with global terrorism. They explain the size and timing of violent events in terms of ecological interactions between human groups. Their model is consistent with recent hypotheses concerning insurgency and establishes a quantitative connection between insurgent warfare, terrorism and ecology. Similarities to financial market models point to a link between violent and non-violent human behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Camilo Bohorquez & Sean Gourley & Alexander R. Dixon & Michael Spagat & Neil F. Johnson, 2009. "Common ecology quantifies human insurgency," Nature, Nature, vol. 462(7275), pages 911-914, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:462:y:2009:i:7275:d:10.1038_nature08631
    DOI: 10.1038/nature08631
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    Cited by:

    1. Ross Richardson & Matteo Richiardi & Michael Wolfson, 2015. "We ran one billion agents. Scaling in simulation models," Economics Papers 2015-W05, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    2. Garcia-Bernardo, Javier & Dodds, Peter Sheridan & Johnson, Neil F., 2016. "Quantitative patterns in drone wars," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 443(C), pages 380-384.
    3. Madelyn Hsiao-Rei Hicks & Uih Ran Lee & Ralph Sundberg & Michael Spagat, 2011. "Global Comparison of Warring Groups in 2002–2007: Fatalities from Targeting Civilians vs. Fighting Battles," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(9), pages 1-14, September.
    4. James, Nick & Menzies, Max & Chok, James & Milner, Aaron & Milner, Cas, 2023. "Geometric persistence and distributional trends in worldwide terrorism," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    5. Michael Spagat & Neil Johnson & Stijn van Weezel, 2017. "David Versus Goliath: Fundamental Patterns and Predictions in Modern Wars and Terrorist Campaigns," Working Papers 201721, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    6. Jaspersen, Johannes G. & Montibeller, Gilberto, 2020. "On the learning patterns and adaptive behavior of terrorist organizations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(1), pages 221-234.
    7. Boon Kin Teh & Siew Ann Cheong, 2016. "The Asian Correction Can Be Quantitatively Forecasted Using a Statistical Model of Fusion-Fission Processes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-13, October.
    8. Nicos Christodoulakis, 2016. "Conflict dynamics and costs in the Greek Civil War 1946–1949," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 688-717, September.
    9. Rafael González-Val, 2016. "War Size Distribution: Empirical Regularities Behind Conflicts," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 838-853, November.
    10. Kyu-Min Lee & Jae-Suk Yang & Gunn Kim & Jaesung Lee & Kwang-Il Goh & In-mook Kim, 2010. "Impact of the topology of global macroeconomic network on the spreading of economic crises," Papers 1011.4336, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2011.
    11. Karolin E Kappler & Andreas Kaltenbrunner, 2012. "The Power Laws of Violence against Women: Rescaling Research and Policies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(7), pages 1-8, July.
    12. Michael Spagat & Neil F Johnson & Stijn van Weezel, 2018. "Fundamental patterns and predictions of event size distributions in modern wars and terrorist campaigns," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(10), pages 1-13, October.
    13. Kyu-Min Lee & Jae-Suk Yang & Gunn Kim & Jaesung Lee & Kwang-Il Goh & In-mook Kim, 2011. "Impact of the Topology of Global Macroeconomic Network on the Spreading of Economic Crises," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(3), pages 1-11, March.
    14. Stijn van Weezel, 2018. "Apocalypse now? - Climate change and war in Africa," Working Papers 201816, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    15. Zhou, Bin & Xie, Jia-Rong & Yan, Xiao-Yong & Wang, Nianxin & Wang, Bing-Hong, 2017. "A model of task-deletion mechanism based on the priority queueing system of Barabási," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 466(C), pages 415-421.
    16. Juan D Botero & Weisi Guo & Guillem Mosquera & Alan Wilson & Samuel Johnson & Gicela A Aguirre-Garcia & Leonardo A Pachon, 2019. "Gang confrontation: The case of Medellin (Colombia)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, December.
    17. de Waal, Alex & Hazlett, Chad & Davenport, Christian & Kennedy, Joshua, 2014. "The epidemiology of lethal violence in Darfur: Using micro-data to explore complex patterns of ongoing armed conflict," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 368-377.
    18. Sebastian Schutte, 2017. "Geographic determinants of indiscriminate violence in civil wars," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(4), pages 380-405, July.
    19. Hamid Mohtadi & Bryan S. Weber, 2021. "Catastrophe And Rational Policy: Case Of National Security," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 140-161, January.

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