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Hirsch Index and Truth Survival in Clinical Research

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  • Thierry Poynard
  • Dominique Thabut
  • Mona Munteanu
  • Vlad Ratziu
  • Yves Benhamou
  • Olivier Deckmyn

Abstract

Background: Factors associated with the survival of truth of clinical conclusions in the medical literature are unknown. We hypothesized that publications with a first author having a higher Hirsch' index value (h-I), which quantifies and predicts an individual's scientific research output, should have a longer half-life. Methods and Results: 474 original articles concerning cirrhosis or hepatitis published from 1945 to 1999 were selected. The survivals of the main conclusions were updated in 2009. The truth survival was assessed by time-dependent methods (Kaplan Meier method and Cox). A conclusion was considered to be true, obsolete or false when three or more observers out of the six stated it to be so. 284 out of 474 conclusions (60%) were still considered true, 90 (19%) were considered obsolete and 100 (21%) false. The median of the h-I was = 24 (range 1–85). Authors with true conclusions had significantly higher h-I (median = 28) than those with obsolete (h-I = 19; P = 0.002) or false conclusions (h-I = 19; P = 0.01). The factors associated (P 30 years vs. 16 for

Suggested Citation

  • Thierry Poynard & Dominique Thabut & Mona Munteanu & Vlad Ratziu & Yves Benhamou & Olivier Deckmyn, 2010. "Hirsch Index and Truth Survival in Clinical Research," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(8), pages 1-10, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0012044
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0012044
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John P A Ioannidis, 2005. "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(8), pages 1-1, August.
    2. Philip Ball, 2007. "Achievement index climbs the ranks," Nature, Nature, vol. 448(7155), pages 737-737, August.
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    1. Johannes Hönekopp & Julie Khan, 2012. "Future publication success in science is better predicted by traditional measures than by the h index," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 90(3), pages 843-853, March.

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