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Mapping Oil and Gas Development Potential in the US Intermountain West and Estimating Impacts to Species

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Listed:
  • Holly E Copeland
  • Kevin E Doherty
  • David E Naugle
  • Amy Pocewicz
  • Joseph M Kiesecker

Abstract

Background: Many studies have quantified the indirect effect of hydrocarbon-based economies on climate change and biodiversity, concluding that a significant proportion of species will be threatened with extinction. However, few studies have measured the direct effect of new energy production infrastructure on species persistence. Methodology/Principal Findings: We propose a systematic way to forecast patterns of future energy development and calculate impacts to species using spatially-explicit predictive modeling techniques to estimate oil and gas potential and create development build-out scenarios by seeding the landscape with oil and gas wells based on underlying potential. We illustrate our approach for the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the western US and translate the build-out scenarios into estimated impacts on sage-grouse. We project that future oil and gas development will cause a 7–19 percent decline from 2007 sage-grouse lek population counts and impact 3.7 million ha of sagebrush shrublands and 1.1 million ha of grasslands in the study area. Conclusions/Significance: Maps of where oil and gas development is anticipated in the US Intermountain West can be used by decision-makers intent on minimizing impacts to sage-grouse. This analysis also provides a general framework for using predictive models and build-out scenarios to anticipate impacts to species. These predictive models and build-out scenarios allow tradeoffs to be considered between species conservation and energy development prior to implementation.

Suggested Citation

  • Holly E Copeland & Kevin E Doherty & David E Naugle & Amy Pocewicz & Joseph M Kiesecker, 2009. "Mapping Oil and Gas Development Potential in the US Intermountain West and Estimating Impacts to Species," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(10), pages 1-7, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0007400
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0007400
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joseph M. Kiesecker & Andrew R. Blaustein & Lisa K. Belden, 2001. "Complex causes of amphibian population declines," Nature, Nature, vol. 410(6829), pages 681-684, April.
    2. F. Stuart Chapin III & Erika S. Zavaleta & Valerie T. Eviner & Rosamond L. Naylor & Peter M. Vitousek & Heather L. Reynolds & David U. Hooper & Sandra Lavorel & Osvaldo E. Sala & Sarah E. Hobbie & Mic, 2000. "Consequences of changing biodiversity," Nature, Nature, vol. 405(6783), pages 234-242, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joshua D. Carrell & Edward Hammill & Thomas C. Edwards, 2022. "Balancing Rare Species Conservation with Extractive Industries," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, November.
    2. D. Kelly Ostermann & Amalesh Dhar & M. Anne Naeth, 2023. "Native and Dryland Pasture Seed Mixes Impact Revegetation 12 Years after Pipeline Construction in Southern Alberta," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-15, April.
    3. McLane, Adam J. & Semeniuk, Christina & McDermid, Gregory J. & Marceau, Danielle J., 2011. "The role of agent-based models in wildlife ecology and management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(8), pages 1544-1556.
    4. James Fitzsimons & Michael Heiner & Bruce McKenney & Kei Sochi & Joseph Kiesecker, 2014. "Development by Design in Western Australia: Overcoming Offset Obstacles," Land, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, February.
    5. Ray C Duthu & Thomas H Bradley, 2017. "A road damage and life-cycle greenhouse gas comparison of trucking and pipeline water delivery systems for hydraulically fractured oil and gas field development in Colorado," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(7), pages 1-14, July.

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