Dengue Baidu Search Index data can improve the prediction of local dengue epidemic: A case study in Guangzhou, China

Background: Dengue fever (DF) in Guangzhou, Guangdong province in China is an important public health issue. The problem was highlighted in 2014 by a large, unprecedented outbreak. In order to respond in a more timely manner and hence better control such potential outbreaks in the future, this study develops an early warning model that integrates internet-based query data into traditional surveillance data. Methodology and principal findings: A Dengue Baidu Search Index (DBSI) was collected from the Baidu website for developing a predictive model of dengue fever in combination with meteorological and demographic factors. Generalized additive models (GAM) with or without DBSI were established. The generalized cross validation (GCV) score and deviance explained indexes, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and root mean squared error (RMSE), were respectively applied to measure the fitness and the prediction capability of the models. Our results show that the DBSI with one-week lag has a positive linear relationship with the local DF occurrence, and the model with DBSI (ICC:0.94 and RMSE:59.86) has a better prediction capability than the model without DBSI (ICC:0.72 and RMSE:203.29). Conclusions: Our study suggests that a DSBI combined with traditional disease surveillance and meteorological data can improve the dengue early warning system in Guangzhou. Author summary: Dengue fever is an important public health problem in China, and its importance was highlighted by an unprecedented outbreak in Guangdong province in 2014. Several previous studies have found that prediction models based on internet-based data have advantages in the timely detection of dengue epidemics. In this study, we employed the Dengue Baidu Search Index (DBSI) to explore whether internet-based query data can help improve disease prediction. We found that the dengue early warning system combining DBSI with traditional surveillance and meteorological data improved the prediction capability in Guangzhou, which suggests that utilizing big data from internet search engines can provide valuable supplementary data to traditional surveillance systems particularly for developing dengue early warning systems.