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The Use of Bivariate Spatial Modeling of Questionnaire and Parasitology Data to Predict the Distribution of Schistosoma haematobium in Coastal Kenya

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  • Hugh J W Sturrock
  • Rachel L Pullan
  • Jimmy H Kihara
  • Charles Mwandawiro
  • Simon J Brooker

Abstract

Background: Questionnaires of reported blood in urine (BIU) distributed through the existing school system provide a rapid and reliable method to classify schools according to the prevalence of Schistosoma haematobium, thereby helping in the targeting of schistosomiasis control. However, not all schools return questionnaires and it is unclear whether treatment is warranted in such schools. This study investigates the use of bivariate spatial modelling of available and multiple data sources to predict the prevalence of S. haematobium at every school along the Kenyan coast. Methodology: Data from a questionnaire survey conducted by the Kenya Ministry of Education in Coast Province in 2009 were combined with available parasitological and environmental data in a Bayesian bivariate spatial model. This modeled the relationship between BIU data and environmental covariates, as well as the relationship between BIU and S. haematobium infection prevalence, to predict S. haematobium infection prevalence at all schools in the study region. Validation procedures were implemented to assess the predictive accuracy of endemicity classification. Principal Findings: The prevalence of BIU was negatively correlated with distance to nearest river and there was considerable residual spatial correlation at small (∼15 km) spatial scales. There was a predictable relationship between the prevalence of reported BIU and S. haematobium infection. The final model exhibited excellent sensitivity (0.94) but moderate specificity (0.69) in identifying low (

Suggested Citation

  • Hugh J W Sturrock & Rachel L Pullan & Jimmy H Kihara & Charles Mwandawiro & Simon J Brooker, 2013. "The Use of Bivariate Spatial Modeling of Questionnaire and Parasitology Data to Predict the Distribution of Schistosoma haematobium in Coastal Kenya," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(1), pages 1-11, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pntd00:0002016
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jörn P W Scharlemann & David Benz & Simon I Hay & Bethan V Purse & Andrew J Tatem & G R William Wint & David J Rogers, 2008. "Global Data for Ecology and Epidemiology: A Novel Algorithm for Temporal Fourier Processing MODIS Data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(1), pages 1-13, January.
    2. Crainiceanu, Ciprian M. & Diggle, Peter J. & Rowlingson, Barry, 2008. "Bivariate Binomial Spatial Modeling of Loa loa Prevalence in Tropical Africa," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 21-37, March.
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