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Health and economic benefits of achieving hepatitis C virus elimination in Pakistan: A modelling study and economic analysis

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  • Aaron G Lim
  • Nick Scott
  • Josephine G Walker
  • Saeed Hamid
  • Margaret Hellard
  • Peter Vickerman

Abstract

Background: Modelling suggests that achieving the WHO incidence target for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Pakistan could cost US$3.87 billion over 2018 to 2030. However, the economic benefits from integrating services or improving productivity were not included. Methods and findings: We adapt a HCV transmission model for Pakistan to estimate the impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of achieving HCV elimination (reducing annual HCV incidence by 80% by 2030) with stand-alone service delivery, or partially integrating one-third of initial HCV testing into existing healthcare services. We estimate the net economic benefits by comparing the required investment in screening, treatment, and healthcare management to the economic productivity gains from reduced HCV-attributable absenteeism, presenteeism, and premature deaths. We also calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for HCV elimination versus maintaining current levels of HCV treatment. This is compared to an opportunity cost-based willingness-to-pay threshold for Pakistan (US$148 to US$198/DALY). Conclusions: Investment in HCV elimination can bring about substantial societal health and economic benefits for Pakistan. Aaron G Lim and colleagues model the health and economic benefits of eliminating hepatitis C in Pakistan.Why was this study done?: What did the researchers do and find?: What do these findings mean?:

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron G Lim & Nick Scott & Josephine G Walker & Saeed Hamid & Margaret Hellard & Peter Vickerman, 2021. "Health and economic benefits of achieving hepatitis C virus elimination in Pakistan: A modelling study and economic analysis," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(10), pages 1-19, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pmed00:1003818
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003818
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    2. World Bank, 2019. "Global Economic Prospects, June 2019," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 31655.
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